FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
42%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.262.73safe0.51–2.440.40–2.120.91–4.55safer0.25–2.700.15–2.370.40–5.06actual5.004.009.00
Shots on target
73%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.962.727.68safe3.10–6.811.02–4.434.12–11.24safer2.60–7.310.55–4.903.15–12.21
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction12.548.9521.48safe8.83–16.245.57–12.3314.40–28.57safer7.80–17.274.64–13.2612.44–30.53
Shots in box
79%
homeawaytotalprediction4.502.006.50safe1.99–7.020.00–4.301.68–11.32safer1.12–7.880.00–5.100.02–12.98
Blocked shots
60%
23%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.790.832.62safe0.21–3.370.00–2.240.00–5.62safer0.00–3.910.00–2.730.00–6.64
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.189.82safe3.43–7.842.20–6.165.63–14.00safer2.84–8.441.66–6.694.50–15.13
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction53.1846.05safe46.86–59.4939.73–52.37safer45.26–61.0938.14–53.97
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction406358764safe341–471293–422634–894safer323–489276–440599–929
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction68.5065.19safe64.29–72.7260.69–69.70safer62.98–74.0259.36–71.03
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9412.3724.31safe9.08–14.809.43–15.3218.51–30.11safer8.20–15.688.51–16.2416.71–31.92
Offsides
52%
21%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.483.57safe0.88–3.300.32–2.651.20–5.95safer0.54–3.650.00–2.980.53–6.62
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.903.65safe0.70–2.810.78–3.021.48–5.83safer0.42–3.080.49–3.310.91–6.39
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.070.19safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.735.09safe0.95–3.771.18–4.292.13–8.06safer0.56–4.160.75–4.721.30–8.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 5.00 | 1.26 0.40–2.12 0.15–2.37 | 4.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 9.00 | 42% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.10–6.81 2.60–7.31 | — | 2.72 1.02–4.43 0.55–4.90 | — | 7.68 4.12–11.24 3.15–12.21 | — | 73% 16% |
| Total shots | 12.54 8.83–16.24 7.80–17.27 | — | 8.95 5.57–12.33 4.64–13.26 | — | 21.48 14.40–28.57 12.44–30.53 | — | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 4.50 1.99–7.02 1.12–7.88 | — | 2.00 0.00–4.30 0.00–5.10 | — | 6.50 1.68–11.32 0.02–12.98 | — | 79% |
| Blocked shots | 1.79 0.21–3.37 0.00–3.91 | — | 0.83 0.00–2.24 0.00–2.73 | — | 2.62 0.00–5.62 0.00–6.64 | — | 60% 23% 17% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.43–7.84 2.84–8.44 | — | 4.18 2.20–6.16 1.66–6.69 | — | 9.82 5.63–14.00 4.50–15.13 | — | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 53.18 46.86–59.49 45.26–61.09 | — | 46.05 39.73–52.37 38.14–53.97 | — | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 406 341–471 323–489 | — | 358 293–422 276–440 | — | 764 634–894 599–929 | — | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.50 64.29–72.72 62.98–74.02 | — | 65.19 60.69–69.70 59.36–71.03 | — | — | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 11.94 9.08–14.80 8.20–15.68 | — | 12.37 9.43–15.32 8.51–16.24 | — | 24.31 18.51–30.11 16.71–31.92 | — | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.09 0.88–3.30 0.54–3.65 | — | 1.48 0.32–2.65 0.00–2.98 | — | 3.57 1.20–5.95 0.53–6.62 | — | 52% 21% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.81 0.42–3.08 | — | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | — | 3.65 1.48–5.83 0.91–6.39 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.95–3.77 0.56–4.16 | — | 2.73 1.18–4.29 0.75–4.72 | — | 5.09 2.13–8.06 1.30–8.88 | — | 35% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.