FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.332.79safe0.49–2.420.47–2.190.96–4.61safer0.23–2.680.23–2.440.46–5.12actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.819.57safe2.91–6.623.10–6.516.01–13.14safer2.41–7.122.63–6.985.04–14.10
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7512.7026.46safe10.05–17.469.32–16.0819.37–33.54safer9.02–18.498.39–17.0117.41–35.50
Shots in box
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction5.899.0814.97safe3.37–8.416.77–11.3810.15–19.78safer2.51–9.275.98–12.178.49–21.44
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.787.09safe1.73–4.902.36–5.194.09–10.09safer1.19–5.431.88–5.683.07–11.11
Corners
43%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.674.679.34safe2.46–6.872.69–6.655.15–13.52safer1.87–7.472.15–7.194.02–14.65
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.3754.03safe39.06–51.6947.71–60.35safer37.46–53.2946.11–61.94
Passes
44%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction374390763safe308–439325–454633–893safer291–457308–472598–928
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction63.7469.02safe59.52–67.9564.51–73.52safer58.22–69.2663.18–74.85
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0312.5823.61safe8.18–13.899.64–15.5317.81–29.42safer7.29–14.778.72–16.4516.01–31.22
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.863.55safe0.48–2.900.70–3.021.18–5.93safer0.14–3.250.36–3.350.50–6.60
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.863.33safe0.41–2.520.74–2.981.15–5.50safer0.14–2.800.45–3.270.59–6.07
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.040.10safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.380.00–0.74
GK saves
31%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.105.54safe1.02–3.851.55–4.662.57–8.51safer0.63–4.241.12–5.091.75–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.49–2.42 0.23–2.68 | 2.00 | 1.33 0.47–2.19 0.23–2.44 | 2.00 | 2.79 0.96–4.61 0.46–5.12 | 4.00 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.62 2.41–7.12 | — | 4.81 3.10–6.51 2.63–6.98 | — | 9.57 6.01–13.14 5.04–14.10 | — | 43% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.75 10.05–17.46 9.02–18.49 | — | 12.70 9.32–16.08 8.39–17.01 | — | 26.46 19.37–33.54 17.41–35.50 | — | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 5.89 3.37–8.41 2.51–9.27 | — | 9.08 6.77–11.38 5.98–12.17 | — | 14.97 10.15–19.78 8.49–21.44 | — | 17% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.73–4.90 1.19–5.43 | — | 3.78 2.36–5.19 1.88–5.68 | — | 7.09 4.09–10.09 3.07–11.11 | — | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.46–6.87 1.87–7.47 | — | 4.67 2.69–6.65 2.15–7.19 | — | 9.34 5.15–13.52 4.02–14.65 | — | 43% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 45.37 39.06–51.69 37.46–53.29 | — | 54.03 47.71–60.35 46.11–61.94 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 374 308–439 291–457 | — | 390 325–454 308–472 | — | 763 633–893 598–928 | — | 44% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.74 59.52–67.95 58.22–69.26 | — | 69.02 64.51–73.52 63.18–74.85 | — | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 11.03 8.18–13.89 7.29–14.77 | — | 12.58 9.64–15.53 8.72–16.45 | — | 23.61 17.81–29.42 16.01–31.22 | — | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.14–3.25 | — | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.36–3.35 | — | 3.55 1.18–5.93 0.50–6.60 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.41–2.52 0.14–2.80 | — | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | — | 3.33 1.15–5.50 0.59–6.07 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.74 | — | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.02–3.85 0.63–4.24 | — | 3.10 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.09 | — | 5.54 2.57–8.51 1.75–9.33 | — | 31% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.