FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.152.98safe0.87–2.800.29–2.011.16–4.80safer0.61–3.060.04–2.260.65–5.31actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5.242.727.97safe3.39–7.101.02–4.434.40–11.53safer2.89–7.600.55–4.903.43–12.50
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction13.749.3423.08safe10.03–17.445.96–12.7216.00–30.16safer9.00–18.475.03–13.6514.04–32.12
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction10.054.5914.65safe7.54–12.572.29–6.899.83–19.46safer6.67–13.431.50–7.698.17–21.13
Blocked shots
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.782.316.09safe2.20–5.370.89–3.723.09–9.09safer1.66–5.900.40–4.212.07–10.11
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.724.3410.06safe3.52–7.932.36–6.325.88–14.25safer2.92–8.521.82–6.864.75–15.38
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.0543.98safe48.73–61.3737.66–50.30safer47.13–62.9636.06–51.90
Passes
82%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction433324757safe368–498260–389628–887safer350–516242–407592–923
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction74.6562.83safe70.44–78.8758.32–67.33safer69.13–80.1756.99–68.66
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6811.1921.87safe7.83–13.548.24–14.1316.07–27.67safer6.94–14.427.33–15.0514.27–29.48
Offsides
45%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.884.00safe0.92–3.330.71–3.041.63–6.37safer0.57–3.680.38–3.370.95–7.05
Yellow cards
36%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.943.69safe0.70–2.810.82–3.061.52–5.87safer0.43–3.090.53–3.350.96–6.43
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.955.57safe1.21–4.041.39–4.502.60–8.54safer0.82–4.420.96–4.931.78–9.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.87–2.80 0.61–3.06 | 0.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.04–2.26 | 2.00 | 2.98 1.16–4.80 0.65–5.31 | 2.00 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.24 3.39–7.10 2.89–7.60 | — | 2.72 1.02–4.43 0.55–4.90 | — | 7.97 4.40–11.53 3.43–12.50 | — | 76% 14% |
| Total shots | 13.74 10.03–17.44 9.00–18.47 | — | 9.34 5.96–12.72 5.03–13.65 | — | 23.08 16.00–30.16 14.04–32.12 | — | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.05 7.54–12.57 6.67–13.43 | — | 4.59 2.29–6.89 1.50–7.69 | — | 14.65 9.83–19.46 8.17–21.13 | — | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 2.20–5.37 1.66–5.90 | — | 2.31 0.89–3.72 0.40–4.21 | — | 6.09 3.09–9.09 2.07–10.11 | — | 65% 14% 21% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.52–7.93 2.92–8.52 | — | 4.34 2.36–6.32 1.82–6.86 | — | 10.06 5.88–14.25 4.75–15.38 | — | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.05 48.73–61.37 47.13–62.96 | — | 43.98 37.66–50.30 36.06–51.90 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 433 368–498 350–516 | — | 324 260–389 242–407 | — | 757 628–887 592–923 | — | 82% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.65 70.44–78.87 69.13–80.17 | — | 62.83 58.32–67.33 56.99–68.66 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 10.68 7.83–13.54 6.94–14.42 | — | 11.19 8.24–14.13 7.33–15.05 | — | 21.87 16.07–27.67 14.27–29.48 | — | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.12 0.92–3.33 0.57–3.68 | — | 1.88 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | — | 4.00 1.63–6.37 0.95–7.05 | — | 45% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.70–2.81 0.43–3.09 | — | 1.94 0.82–3.06 0.53–3.35 | — | 3.69 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.43 | — | 36% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.21–4.04 0.82–4.42 | — | 2.95 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.93 | — | 5.57 2.60–8.54 1.78–9.36 | — | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+