FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.372.86safe0.53–2.450.51–2.231.04–4.68safer0.27–2.710.26–2.480.53–5.19actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.208.91safe2.86–6.572.49–5.905.35–12.47safer2.36–7.072.02–6.374.38–13.44
Total shots
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9811.0625.04safe10.28–17.687.68–14.4417.96–32.12safer9.25–18.716.75–15.3716.00–34.08
Shots in box
15%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction5.508.8314.34safe2.99–8.026.53–11.149.52–19.16safer2.12–8.895.74–11.937.86–20.82
Blocked shots
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.616.32safe1.12–4.292.20–5.033.32–9.32safer0.59–4.821.71–5.512.30–10.34
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.209.47safe3.07–7.482.22–6.185.29–13.65safer2.47–8.071.68–6.714.15–14.79
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction49.9249.93safe43.60–56.2443.61–56.25safer42.01–57.8442.02–57.85
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction381382763safe316–446317–446633–892safer298–464299–464597–928
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction65.7870.03safe61.56–70.0065.52–74.54safer60.26–71.3064.19–75.87
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3912.2522.63safe7.53–13.249.30–15.1916.83–28.44safer6.65–14.138.38–16.1115.03–30.24
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.533.41safe0.67–3.090.37–2.701.04–5.78safer0.33–3.430.04–3.030.36–6.46
Yellow cards
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.983.31safe0.28–2.390.86–3.101.13–5.49safer0.01–2.660.57–3.390.57–6.05
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.045.47safe1.02–3.851.48–4.592.50–8.44safer0.63–4.241.05–5.021.68–9.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.53–2.45 0.27–2.71 | 1.00 | 1.37 0.51–2.23 0.26–2.48 | 1.00 | 2.86 1.04–4.68 0.53–5.19 | 2.00 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.86–6.57 2.36–7.07 | — | 4.20 2.49–5.90 2.02–6.37 | — | 8.91 5.35–12.47 4.38–13.44 | — | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.98 10.28–17.68 9.25–18.71 | — | 11.06 7.68–14.44 6.75–15.37 | — | 25.04 17.96–32.12 16.00–34.08 | — | 69% 25% |
| Shots in box | 5.50 2.99–8.02 2.12–8.89 | — | 8.83 6.53–11.14 5.74–11.93 | — | 14.34 9.52–19.16 7.86–20.82 | — | 15% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 2.71 1.12–4.29 0.59–4.82 | — | 3.61 2.20–5.03 1.71–5.51 | — | 6.32 3.32–9.32 2.30–10.34 | — | 29% 15% 56% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.07–7.48 2.47–8.07 | — | 4.20 2.22–6.18 1.68–6.71 | — | 9.47 5.29–13.65 4.15–14.79 | — | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 49.92 43.60–56.24 42.01–57.84 | — | 49.93 43.61–56.25 42.02–57.85 | — | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 381 316–446 298–464 | — | 382 317–446 299–464 | — | 763 633–892 597–928 | — | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.78 61.56–70.00 60.26–71.30 | — | 70.03 65.52–74.54 64.19–75.87 | — | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 10.39 7.53–13.24 6.65–14.13 | — | 12.25 9.30–15.19 8.38–16.11 | — | 22.63 16.83–28.44 15.03–30.24 | — | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.33–3.43 | — | 1.53 0.37–2.70 0.04–3.03 | — | 3.41 1.04–5.78 0.36–6.46 | — | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.34 0.28–2.39 0.01–2.66 | — | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | — | 3.31 1.13–5.49 0.57–6.05 | — | 26% 22% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.43 1.02–3.85 0.63–4.24 | — | 3.04 1.48–4.59 1.05–5.02 | — | 5.47 2.50–8.44 1.68–9.26 | — | 32% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.