FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.252.75safe0.54–2.460.39–2.110.92–4.57safer0.28–2.720.14–2.350.42–5.08actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.768.58safe2.96–6.682.05–5.475.02–12.14safer2.46–7.171.58–5.934.05–13.11
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3411.0023.34safe8.63–16.047.62–14.3816.26–30.42safer7.60–17.076.69–15.3114.30–32.38
Shots in box
80%
homeawaytotalprediction8.715.0713.78safe6.20–11.232.76–7.378.96–18.60safer5.33–12.091.97–8.167.30–20.26
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.552.435.97safe1.96–5.131.01–3.842.97–8.97safer1.43–5.670.53–4.331.95–9.99
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.123.939.05safe2.91–7.321.96–5.914.87–13.24safer2.32–7.921.42–6.453.74–14.37
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction51.7947.78safe45.47–58.1141.46–54.10safer43.88–59.7139.86–55.69
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction400391791safe335–465327–456661–921safer317–483309–474626–956
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction74.0769.26safe69.86–78.2964.76–73.77safer68.56–79.5963.43–75.10
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction9.699.0418.74safe6.84–12.556.10–11.9912.93–24.54safer5.95–13.435.18–12.9111.13–26.34
Offsides
49%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.461.974.43safe1.25–3.670.80–3.132.06–6.80safer0.91–4.010.47–3.461.38–7.48
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.823.70safe0.83–2.940.70–2.941.53–5.88safer0.56–3.210.41–3.230.96–6.44
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.336.32safe1.57–4.401.78–4.893.35–9.29safer1.18–4.791.35–5.322.53–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 3.00 | 1.25 0.39–2.11 0.14–2.35 | 0.00 | 2.75 0.92–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 3.00 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.82 2.96–6.68 2.46–7.17 | — | 3.76 2.05–5.47 1.58–5.93 | — | 8.58 5.02–12.14 4.05–13.11 | — | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 12.34 8.63–16.04 7.60–17.07 | — | 11.00 7.62–14.38 6.69–15.31 | — | 23.34 16.26–30.42 14.30–32.38 | — | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.71 6.20–11.23 5.33–12.09 | — | 5.07 2.76–7.37 1.97–8.16 | — | 13.78 8.96–18.60 7.30–20.26 | — | 80% |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 1.96–5.13 1.43–5.67 | — | 2.43 1.01–3.84 0.53–4.33 | — | 5.97 2.97–8.97 1.95–9.99 | — | 60% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.91–7.32 2.32–7.92 | — | 3.93 1.96–5.91 1.42–6.45 | — | 9.05 4.87–13.24 3.74–14.37 | — | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 51.79 45.47–58.11 43.88–59.71 | — | 47.78 41.46–54.10 39.86–55.69 | — | — | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 400 335–465 317–483 | — | 391 327–456 309–474 | — | 791 661–921 626–956 | — | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.07 69.86–78.29 68.56–79.59 | — | 69.26 64.76–73.77 63.43–75.10 | — | — | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 9.69 6.84–12.55 5.95–13.43 | — | 9.04 6.10–11.99 5.18–12.91 | — | 18.74 12.93–24.54 11.13–26.34 | — | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.46 1.25–3.67 0.91–4.01 | — | 1.97 0.80–3.13 0.47–3.46 | — | 4.43 2.06–6.80 1.38–7.48 | — | 49% 19% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.94 0.56–3.21 | — | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.70 1.53–5.88 0.96–6.44 | — | 40% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.57–4.40 1.18–4.79 | — | 3.33 1.78–4.89 1.35–5.32 | — | 6.32 3.35–9.29 2.53–10.11 | — | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.