FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.242.43safe0.23–2.150.38–2.100.61–4.26safer0.00–2.410.14–2.350.10–4.76actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.153.929.07safe3.29–7.002.21–5.635.50–12.63safer2.79–7.501.74–6.104.53–13.60
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1512.0526.20safe10.44–17.858.68–15.4319.12–33.28safer9.41–18.887.74–16.3617.16–35.24
Shots in box
59%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction8.156.7414.89safe5.63–10.664.44–9.0410.07–19.70safer4.77–11.533.64–9.848.41–21.37
Blocked shots
43%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.456.95safe1.92–5.092.03–4.863.95–9.95safer1.39–5.621.55–5.352.93–10.97
Corners
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.403.848.24safe2.19–6.611.86–5.824.06–12.43safer1.60–7.201.33–6.362.93–13.56
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.6550.50safe43.33–55.9744.18–56.82safer41.74–57.5742.58–58.42
Passes
49%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction394396790safe329–459331–460660–920safer311–477314–478625–955
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction68.0768.03safe63.86–72.2963.52–72.53safer62.55–73.5962.19–73.86
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7412.3024.04safe8.88–14.609.36–15.2518.24–29.85safer8.00–15.488.44–16.1716.44–31.65
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.933.66safe0.52–2.940.76–3.091.29–6.03safer0.18–3.290.43–3.420.61–6.71
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.913.54safe0.57–2.680.79–3.041.37–5.72safer0.30–2.960.50–3.330.81–6.28
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.050.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.240.00–0.47safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
36%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.055.73safe1.27–4.101.50–4.612.77–8.70safer0.88–4.491.07–5.041.94–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.23–2.15 0.00–2.41 | 1.00 | 1.24 0.38–2.10 0.14–2.35 | 1.00 | 2.43 0.61–4.26 0.10–4.76 | 2.00 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.15 3.29–7.00 2.79–7.50 | — | 3.92 2.21–5.63 1.74–6.10 | — | 9.07 5.50–12.63 4.53–13.60 | — | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.15 10.44–17.85 9.41–18.88 | — | 12.05 8.68–15.43 7.74–16.36 | — | 26.20 19.12–33.28 17.16–35.24 | — | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.15 5.63–10.66 4.77–11.53 | — | 6.74 4.44–9.04 3.64–9.84 | — | 14.89 10.07–19.70 8.41–21.37 | — | 59% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.92–5.09 1.39–5.62 | — | 3.45 2.03–4.86 1.55–5.35 | — | 6.95 3.95–9.95 2.93–10.97 | — | 43% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.61 1.60–7.20 | — | 3.84 1.86–5.82 1.33–6.36 | — | 8.24 4.06–12.43 2.93–13.56 | — | 51% 14% 35% |
| Possession % | 49.65 43.33–55.97 41.74–57.57 | — | 50.50 44.18–56.82 42.58–58.42 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 394 329–459 311–477 | — | 396 331–460 314–478 | — | 790 660–920 625–955 | — | 49% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.07 63.86–72.29 62.55–73.59 | — | 68.03 63.52–72.53 62.19–73.86 | — | — | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.88–14.60 8.00–15.48 | — | 12.30 9.36–15.25 8.44–16.17 | — | 24.04 18.24–29.85 16.44–31.65 | — | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.52–2.94 0.18–3.29 | — | 1.93 0.76–3.09 0.43–3.42 | — | 3.66 1.29–6.03 0.61–6.71 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.68 0.30–2.96 | — | 1.91 0.79–3.04 0.50–3.33 | — | 3.54 1.37–5.72 0.81–6.28 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.27–4.10 0.88–4.49 | — | 3.05 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | — | 5.73 2.77–8.70 1.94–9.52 | — | 36% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+