FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
41%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.182.52safe0.38–2.310.32–2.040.70–4.34safer0.12–2.570.07–2.280.19–4.85actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.139.14safe3.15–6.862.43–5.845.57–12.70safer2.65–7.361.96–6.314.61–13.67
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3611.6424.00safe8.66–16.068.27–15.0216.92–31.09safer7.63–17.097.34–15.9514.96–33.05
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction8.706.4215.12safe6.18–11.214.12–8.7210.30–19.94safer5.32–12.083.32–9.528.64–21.60
Blocked shots
59%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.872.806.67safe2.29–5.451.39–4.223.67–9.67safer1.75–5.990.90–4.702.65–10.69
Corners
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.314.368.67safe2.10–6.512.38–6.344.48–12.85safer1.51–7.111.84–6.883.35–13.98
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction48.0852.89safe41.76–54.4046.57–59.21safer40.17–56.0044.98–60.81
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction369407777safe304–435343–472647–907safer286–452325–489612–942
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction70.4870.92safe66.26–74.6966.41–75.43safer64.96–75.9965.08–76.76
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8912.0123.90safe9.03–14.759.06–14.9518.10–29.70safer8.15–15.638.14–15.8716.29–31.50
Offsides
44%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.743.74safe0.78–3.200.58–2.911.37–6.11safer0.44–3.550.25–3.240.69–6.79
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.783.75safe0.91–3.030.66–2.901.58–5.93safer0.64–3.300.37–3.191.01–6.49
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.422.985.40safe1.01–3.831.43–4.542.43–8.37safer0.62–4.221.00–4.971.61–9.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.38–2.31 0.12–2.57 | 0.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 2.00 | 2.52 0.70–4.34 0.19–4.85 | 2.00 | 41% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.00 3.15–6.86 2.65–7.36 | — | 4.13 2.43–5.84 1.96–6.31 | — | 9.14 5.57–12.70 4.61–13.67 | — | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 12.36 8.66–16.06 7.63–17.09 | — | 11.64 8.27–15.02 7.34–15.95 | — | 24.00 16.92–31.09 14.96–33.05 | — | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.70 6.18–11.21 5.32–12.08 | — | 6.42 4.12–8.72 3.32–9.52 | — | 15.12 10.30–19.94 8.64–21.60 | — | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 2.29–5.45 1.75–5.99 | — | 2.80 1.39–4.22 0.90–4.70 | — | 6.67 3.67–9.67 2.65–10.69 | — | 59% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 4.31 2.10–6.51 1.51–7.11 | — | 4.36 2.38–6.34 1.84–6.88 | — | 8.67 4.48–12.85 3.35–13.98 | — | 42% 14% 44% |
| Possession % | 48.08 41.76–54.40 40.17–56.00 | — | 52.89 46.57–59.21 44.98–60.81 | — | — | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 369 304–435 286–452 | — | 407 343–472 325–489 | — | 777 647–907 612–942 | — | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.48 66.26–74.69 64.96–75.99 | — | 70.92 66.41–75.43 65.08–76.76 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 11.89 9.03–14.75 8.15–15.63 | — | 12.01 9.06–14.95 8.14–15.87 | — | 23.90 18.10–29.70 16.29–31.50 | — | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.78–3.20 0.44–3.55 | — | 1.74 0.58–2.91 0.25–3.24 | — | 3.74 1.37–6.11 0.69–6.79 | — | 44% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.91–3.03 0.64–3.30 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.75 1.58–5.93 1.01–6.49 | — | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.42 1.01–3.83 0.62–4.22 | — | 2.98 1.43–4.54 1.00–4.97 | — | 5.40 2.43–8.37 1.61–9.19 | — | 32% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.