FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
56%
24%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.680.912.59safe0.72–2.640.05–1.770.77–4.41safer0.46–2.900.00–2.010.26–4.92actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction5.011.976.98safe3.16–6.870.27–3.683.42–10.55safer2.66–7.370.00–4.152.45–11.51
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.079.2920.36safe7.37–14.775.91–12.6713.28–27.44safer6.33–15.804.98–13.6011.32–29.41
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction7.905.2113.12safe5.39–10.422.91–7.528.30–17.93safer4.52–11.282.12–8.316.64–19.60
Blocked shots
62%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.295.82safe1.95–5.120.87–3.702.82–8.82safer1.42–5.650.38–4.191.80–9.84
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.183.799.97safe3.98–8.391.81–5.775.79–14.15safer3.38–8.981.27–6.304.65–15.28
Possession %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction54.3046.16safe47.98–60.6139.84–52.48safer46.38–62.2138.24–54.08
Passes
58%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction410385795safe344–475320–449665–924safer327–493303–467629–960
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction70.5369.05safe66.32–74.7564.54–73.55safer65.02–76.0563.21–74.88
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1311.2622.39safe8.27–13.988.31–14.2116.58–28.19safer7.38–14.877.40–15.1214.78–29.99
Offsides
41%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.833.76safe0.72–3.140.67–2.991.38–6.13safer0.38–3.480.33–3.320.71–6.81
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.743.28safe0.48–2.590.62–2.861.10–5.46safer0.21–2.870.33–3.150.54–6.02
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87
GK saves
39%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.815.50safe1.27–4.101.26–4.372.53–8.46safer0.88–4.490.83–4.801.71–9.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.72–2.64 0.46–2.90 | 1.00 | 0.91 0.05–1.77 0.00–2.01 | 1.00 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.26–4.92 | 2.00 | 56% 24% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.01 3.16–6.87 2.66–7.37 | — | 1.97 0.27–3.68 0.00–4.15 | — | 6.98 3.42–10.55 2.45–11.51 | — | 84% |
| Total shots | 11.07 7.37–14.77 6.33–15.80 | — | 9.29 5.91–12.67 4.98–13.60 | — | 20.36 13.28–27.44 11.32–29.41 | — | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 7.90 5.39–10.42 4.52–11.28 | — | 5.21 2.91–7.52 2.12–8.31 | — | 13.12 8.30–17.93 6.64–19.60 | — | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.95–5.12 1.42–5.65 | — | 2.29 0.87–3.70 0.38–4.19 | — | 5.82 2.82–8.82 1.80–9.84 | — | 62% 15% 23% |
| Corners | 6.18 3.98–8.39 3.38–8.98 | — | 3.79 1.81–5.77 1.27–6.30 | — | 9.97 5.79–14.15 4.65–15.28 | — | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 54.30 47.98–60.61 46.38–62.21 | — | 46.16 39.84–52.48 38.24–54.08 | — | — | — | 67% 28% |
| Passes | 410 344–475 327–493 | — | 385 320–449 303–467 | — | 795 665–924 629–960 | — | 58% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.53 66.32–74.75 65.02–76.05 | — | 69.05 64.54–73.55 63.21–74.88 | — | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 11.13 8.27–13.98 7.38–14.87 | — | 11.26 8.31–14.21 7.40–15.12 | — | 22.39 16.58–28.19 14.78–29.99 | — | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.72–3.14 0.38–3.48 | — | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.33–3.32 | — | 3.76 1.38–6.13 0.71–6.81 | — | 41% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.48–2.59 0.21–2.87 | — | 1.74 0.62–2.86 0.33–3.15 | — | 3.28 1.10–5.46 0.54–6.02 | — | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | — | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | — | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.27–4.10 0.88–4.49 | — | 2.81 1.26–4.37 0.83–4.80 | — | 5.50 2.53–8.46 1.71–9.28 | — | 39% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.