FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
23%
23%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.822.91safe0.13–2.060.96–2.681.09–4.74safer0.00–2.320.71–2.920.58–5.24actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction3.446.209.65safe1.59–5.304.50–7.916.08–13.21safer1.09–5.804.03–8.385.12–14.18
Total shots
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3414.4024.74safe6.63–14.0411.02–17.7817.66–31.82safer5.60–15.0710.09–18.7115.70–33.78
Shots in box
13%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction4.688.1512.82safe2.16–7.195.84–10.458.00–17.64safer1.30–8.065.05–11.246.34–19.30
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.693.457.14safe2.11–5.272.03–4.864.14–10.14safer1.57–5.811.54–5.353.12–11.16
Corners
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.564.798.35safe1.36–5.772.81–6.774.17–12.54safer0.76–6.362.28–7.313.04–13.67
Possession %
84%
homeawayprediction40.7657.78safe34.44–47.0851.46–64.10safer32.84–48.6749.86–65.69
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction327464791safe262–392400–529661–921safer244–410382–546626–956
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction62.4473.47safe58.23–66.6668.96–77.97safer56.93–67.9667.63–79.30
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1613.0625.23safe9.31–15.0210.12–16.0119.42–31.03safer8.42–15.919.20–16.9317.62–32.83
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.873.48safe0.40–2.820.71–3.031.11–5.86safer0.06–3.170.37–3.360.44–6.53
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.853.71safe0.80–2.910.73–2.981.53–5.89safer0.53–3.180.44–3.270.97–6.45
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.040.12safe0.00–0.230.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.975.27safe0.89–3.721.41–4.522.30–8.24safer0.50–4.110.98–4.951.48–9.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.13–2.06 0.00–2.32 | 2.00 | 1.82 0.96–2.68 0.71–2.92 | 1.00 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.58–5.24 | 3.00 | 23% 23% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.44 1.59–5.30 1.09–5.80 | — | 6.20 4.50–7.91 4.03–8.38 | — | 9.65 6.08–13.21 5.12–14.18 | — | 14% 77% |
| Total shots | 10.34 6.63–14.04 5.60–15.07 | — | 14.40 11.02–17.78 10.09–18.71 | — | 24.74 17.66–31.82 15.70–33.78 | — | 18% 76% |
| Shots in box | 4.68 2.16–7.19 1.30–8.06 | — | 8.15 5.84–10.45 5.05–11.24 | — | 12.82 8.00–17.64 6.34–19.30 | — | 13% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 2.11–5.27 1.57–5.81 | — | 3.45 2.03–4.86 1.54–5.35 | — | 7.14 4.14–10.14 3.12–11.16 | — | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 3.56 1.36–5.77 0.76–6.36 | — | 4.79 2.81–6.77 2.28–7.31 | — | 8.35 4.17–12.54 3.04–13.67 | — | 27% 60% |
| Possession % | 40.76 34.44–47.08 32.84–48.67 | — | 57.78 51.46–64.10 49.86–65.69 | — | — | — | 84% |
| Passes | 327 262–392 244–410 | — | 464 400–529 382–546 | — | 791 661–921 626–956 | — | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.44 58.23–66.66 56.93–67.96 | — | 73.47 68.96–77.97 67.63–79.30 | — | — | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.31–15.02 8.42–15.91 | — | 13.06 10.12–16.01 9.20–16.93 | — | 25.23 19.42–31.03 17.62–32.83 | — | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.40–2.82 0.06–3.17 | — | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.37–3.36 | — | 3.48 1.11–5.86 0.44–6.53 | — | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.91 0.53–3.18 | — | 1.85 0.73–2.98 0.44–3.27 | — | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.97–6.45 | — | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.89–3.72 0.50–4.11 | — | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | — | 5.27 2.30–8.24 1.48–9.06 | — | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.