FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
32%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.512.77safe0.30–2.220.65–2.370.95–4.60safer0.04–2.480.41–2.620.44–5.10actual3.003.006.00
Shots on target
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.933.297.22safe2.07–5.781.58–5.003.65–10.78safer1.57–6.281.11–5.462.69–11.75
Total shots
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2710.1322.40safe8.56–15.976.75–13.5115.32–29.48safer7.53–17.005.82–14.4413.35–31.44
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction4.549.5414.08safe2.03–7.067.24–11.849.27–18.90safer1.16–7.926.45–12.647.61–20.56
Blocked shots
34%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.266.04safe1.20–4.371.84–4.673.04–9.04safer0.66–4.901.36–5.162.02–10.06
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.539.83safe3.10–7.512.55–6.515.65–14.01safer2.50–8.102.01–7.054.52–15.15
Possession %
21%
76%
homeawayprediction45.1857.15safe38.86–51.5050.83–63.47safer37.27–53.1049.23–65.06
Passes
30%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction338398736safe273–404333–462606–866safer255–421316–480571–901
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction63.1271.99safe58.90–67.3367.48–76.49safer57.60–68.6366.15–77.82
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3014.1827.48safe10.45–16.1611.23–17.1321.68–33.28safer9.56–17.0410.32–18.0419.88–35.09
Offsides
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.191.763.95safe0.98–3.400.60–2.921.57–6.32safer0.63–3.740.26–3.250.90–6.99
Yellow cards
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.593.07safe0.42–2.530.47–2.710.89–5.24safer0.15–2.800.18–3.000.33–5.81
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.11safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.593.055.63safe1.17–4.001.49–4.602.66–8.60safer0.78–4.391.06–5.031.84–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.30–2.22 0.04–2.48 | 3.00 | 1.51 0.65–2.37 0.41–2.62 | 3.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.44–5.10 | 6.00 | 32% 25% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.93 2.07–5.78 1.57–6.28 | — | 3.29 1.58–5.00 1.11–5.46 | — | 7.22 3.65–10.78 2.69–11.75 | — | 52% 15% 33% |
| Total shots | 12.27 8.56–15.97 7.53–17.00 | — | 10.13 6.75–13.51 5.82–14.44 | — | 22.40 15.32–29.48 13.35–31.44 | — | 63% 29% |
| Shots in box | 4.54 2.03–7.06 1.16–7.92 | — | 9.54 7.24–11.84 6.45–12.64 | — | 14.08 9.27–18.90 7.61–20.56 | — | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 2.78 1.20–4.37 0.66–4.90 | — | 3.26 1.84–4.67 1.36–5.16 | — | 6.04 3.04–9.04 2.02–10.06 | — | 34% 16% 49% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.10–7.51 2.50–8.10 | — | 4.53 2.55–6.51 2.01–7.05 | — | 9.83 5.65–14.01 4.52–15.15 | — | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 45.18 38.86–51.50 37.27–53.10 | — | 57.15 50.83–63.47 49.23–65.06 | — | — | — | 21% 76% |
| Passes | 338 273–404 255–421 | — | 398 333–462 316–480 | — | 736 606–866 571–901 | — | 30% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.12 58.90–67.33 57.60–68.63 | — | 71.99 67.48–76.49 66.15–77.82 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 13.30 10.45–16.16 9.56–17.04 | — | 14.18 11.23–17.13 10.32–18.04 | — | 27.48 21.68–33.28 19.88–35.09 | — | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.19 0.98–3.40 0.63–3.74 | — | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.26–3.25 | — | 3.95 1.57–6.32 0.90–6.99 | — | 48% 20% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.42–2.53 0.15–2.80 | — | 1.59 0.47–2.71 0.18–3.00 | — | 3.07 0.89–5.24 0.33–5.81 | — | 35% 24% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.17–4.00 0.78–4.39 | — | 3.05 1.49–4.60 1.06–5.03 | — | 5.63 2.66–8.60 1.84–9.42 | — | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.