FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.202.95safe0.78–2.710.34–2.061.12–4.77safer0.52–2.970.09–2.300.62–5.27actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.363.008.35safe3.50–7.211.29–4.704.79–11.92safer3.00–7.710.82–5.173.82–12.88
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction13.799.3623.15safe10.09–17.495.98–12.7416.07–30.23safer9.05–18.525.05–13.6714.10–32.19
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction9.334.4613.80safe6.82–11.852.16–6.778.98–18.61safer5.95–12.711.37–7.567.32–20.28
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.782.626.40safe2.19–5.361.20–4.033.40–9.39safer1.66–5.890.72–4.522.38–10.41
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.413.719.12safe3.20–7.611.73–5.694.94–13.30safer2.61–8.211.20–6.233.81–14.44
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction54.0347.02safe47.71–60.3540.70–53.33safer46.12–61.9539.10–54.93
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction435389824safe370–501324–453694–954safer352–518306–471659–989
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction73.2967.81safe69.07–77.5063.30–72.32safer67.77–78.8061.97–73.65
Fouls
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9714.2127.19safe10.12–15.8311.27–17.1621.38–32.99safer9.23–16.7210.35–18.0819.58–34.79
Offsides
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.331.994.32safe1.12–3.540.83–3.151.94–6.69safer0.77–3.880.49–3.491.27–7.37
Yellow cards
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.783.30safe0.46–2.580.66–2.901.13–5.48safer0.19–2.850.37–3.190.56–6.04
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.015.64safe1.21–4.041.46–4.572.67–8.60safer0.82–4.431.03–5.001.85–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.71 0.52–2.97 | 3.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.09–2.30 | 0.00 | 2.95 1.12–4.77 0.62–5.27 | 3.00 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.36 3.50–7.21 3.00–7.71 | — | 3.00 1.29–4.70 0.82–5.17 | — | 8.35 4.79–11.92 3.82–12.88 | — | 74% 16% |
| Total shots | 13.79 10.09–17.49 9.05–18.52 | — | 9.36 5.98–12.74 5.05–13.67 | — | 23.15 16.07–30.23 14.10–32.19 | — | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.33 6.82–11.85 5.95–12.71 | — | 4.46 2.16–6.77 1.37–7.56 | — | 13.80 8.98–18.61 7.32–20.28 | — | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 2.19–5.36 1.66–5.89 | — | 2.62 1.20–4.03 0.72–4.52 | — | 6.40 3.40–9.39 2.38–10.41 | — | 60% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.41 3.20–7.61 2.61–8.21 | — | 3.71 1.73–5.69 1.20–6.23 | — | 9.12 4.94–13.30 3.81–14.44 | — | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 54.03 47.71–60.35 46.12–61.95 | — | 47.02 40.70–53.33 39.10–54.93 | — | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 435 370–501 352–518 | — | 389 324–453 306–471 | — | 824 694–954 659–989 | — | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.29 69.07–77.50 67.77–78.80 | — | 67.81 63.30–72.32 61.97–73.65 | — | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 12.97 10.12–15.83 9.23–16.72 | — | 14.21 11.27–17.16 10.35–18.08 | — | 27.19 21.38–32.99 19.58–34.79 | — | 37% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.33 1.12–3.54 0.77–3.88 | — | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.49–3.49 | — | 4.32 1.94–6.69 1.27–7.37 | — | 46% 20% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.46–2.58 0.19–2.85 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.30 1.13–5.48 0.56–6.04 | — | 33% 23% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.21–4.04 0.82–4.43 | — | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–5.00 | — | 5.64 2.67–8.60 1.85–9.43 | — | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+