FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.510.803.31safe1.55–3.470.00–1.661.48–5.13safer1.29–3.730.00–1.900.98–5.64actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.443.308.73safe3.58–7.291.59–5.015.17–12.30safer3.08–7.791.12–5.474.20–13.27
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction12.809.4522.25safe9.10–16.506.07–12.8215.16–29.33safer8.07–17.535.14–13.7613.20–31.29
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.352.9910.34safe4.84–9.870.69–5.295.52–15.16safer3.97–10.730.00–6.093.86–16.82
Blocked shots
56%
18%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.741.904.64safe1.16–4.320.48–3.311.64–7.64safer0.62–4.860.00–3.800.62–8.66
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction6.022.108.12safe3.82–8.230.12–4.083.94–12.31safer3.22–8.820.00–4.622.81–13.44
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.5443.13safe51.23–63.8636.81–49.45safer49.63–65.4635.21–51.05
Passes
78%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction436344780safe371–502279–408650–910safer353–519262–426615–945
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction76.6068.60safe72.39–80.8264.09–73.10safer71.09–82.1262.76–74.43
Fouls
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3210.7925.11safe11.47–17.187.84–13.7319.31–30.91safer10.58–18.076.92–14.6517.50–32.71
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.343.10safe0.55–2.970.17–2.500.72–5.47safer0.21–3.320.00–2.830.05–6.15
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.843.40safe0.50–2.610.72–2.961.22–5.57safer0.23–2.880.43–3.250.66–6.13
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.050.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.805.19safe0.98–3.811.24–4.352.22–8.16safer0.59–4.200.81–4.781.40–8.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.51 1.55–3.47 1.29–3.73 | 1.00 | 0.80 0.00–1.66 0.00–1.90 | 1.00 | 3.31 1.48–5.13 0.98–5.64 | 2.00 | 75% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.44 3.58–7.29 3.08–7.79 | — | 3.30 1.59–5.01 1.12–5.47 | — | 8.73 5.17–12.30 4.20–13.27 | — | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 12.80 9.10–16.50 8.07–17.53 | — | 9.45 6.07–12.82 5.14–13.76 | — | 22.25 15.16–29.33 13.20–31.29 | — | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 7.35 4.84–9.87 3.97–10.73 | — | 2.99 0.69–5.29 0.00–6.09 | — | 10.34 5.52–15.16 3.86–16.82 | — | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 1.16–4.32 0.62–4.86 | — | 1.90 0.48–3.31 0.00–3.80 | — | 4.64 1.64–7.64 0.62–8.66 | — | 56% 18% 26% |
| Corners | 6.02 3.82–8.23 3.22–8.82 | — | 2.10 0.12–4.08 0.00–4.62 | — | 8.12 3.94–12.31 2.81–13.44 | — | 89% |
| Possession % | 57.54 51.23–63.86 49.63–65.46 | — | 43.13 36.81–49.45 35.21–51.05 | — | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 436 371–502 353–519 | — | 344 279–408 262–426 | — | 780 650–910 615–945 | — | 78% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.60 72.39–80.82 71.09–82.12 | — | 68.60 64.09–73.10 62.76–74.43 | — | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 14.32 11.47–17.18 10.58–18.07 | — | 10.79 7.84–13.73 6.92–14.65 | — | 25.11 19.31–30.91 17.50–32.71 | — | 73% 21% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.32 | — | 1.34 0.17–2.50 0.00–2.83 | — | 3.10 0.72–5.47 0.05–6.15 | — | 48% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.50–2.61 0.23–2.88 | — | 1.84 0.72–2.96 0.43–3.25 | — | 3.40 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.13 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.98–3.81 0.59–4.20 | — | 2.80 1.24–4.35 0.81–4.78 | — | 5.19 2.22–8.16 1.40–8.98 | — | 34% 18% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.