FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
28%
25%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.532.66safe0.17–2.100.67–2.390.84–4.48safer0.00–2.360.42–2.630.33–4.99actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.264.338.59safe2.40–6.122.62–6.045.03–12.15safer1.90–6.622.15–6.514.06–13.12
Total shots
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0810.2321.31safe7.38–14.786.85–13.6114.23–28.39safer6.35–15.825.92–14.5412.27–30.35
Shots in box
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction4.147.1911.33safe1.63–6.664.89–9.496.52–16.15safer0.76–7.524.09–10.294.85–17.81
Blocked shots
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.305.66safe0.78–3.951.88–4.712.66–8.66safer0.25–4.481.39–5.201.64–9.68
Corners
46%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.378.92safe2.34–6.752.39–6.354.73–13.10safer1.75–7.351.85–6.893.60–14.23
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.4454.33safe39.12–51.7648.01–60.65safer37.53–53.3646.41–62.24
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction342424767safe277–408360–489637–896safer259–425342–506601–932
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction64.8373.55safe60.62–69.0569.04–78.06safer59.32–70.3567.71–79.39
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7313.3926.12safe9.87–15.5910.44–16.3420.32–31.92safer8.99–16.479.53–17.2518.51–33.72
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.833.56safe0.52–2.940.67–2.991.19–5.94safer0.18–3.290.33–3.320.52–6.61
Yellow cards
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.663.46safe0.74–2.850.54–2.781.28–5.63safer0.47–3.120.25–3.070.72–6.20
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.050.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.615.74safe1.71–4.541.06–4.172.77–8.71safer1.32–4.930.63–4.601.95–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.36 | 1.00 | 1.53 0.67–2.39 0.42–2.63 | 1.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.33–4.99 | 2.00 | 28% 25% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.40–6.12 1.90–6.62 | — | 4.33 2.62–6.04 2.15–6.51 | — | 8.59 5.03–12.15 4.06–13.12 | — | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 11.08 7.38–14.78 6.35–15.82 | — | 10.23 6.85–13.61 5.92–14.54 | — | 21.31 14.23–28.39 12.27–30.35 | — | 53% 38% |
| Shots in box | 4.14 1.63–6.66 0.76–7.52 | — | 7.19 4.89–9.49 4.09–10.29 | — | 11.33 6.52–16.15 4.85–17.81 | — | 14% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 2.36 0.78–3.95 0.25–4.48 | — | 3.30 1.88–4.71 1.39–5.20 | — | 5.66 2.66–8.66 1.64–9.68 | — | 27% 16% 57% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.34–6.75 1.75–7.35 | — | 4.37 2.39–6.35 1.85–6.89 | — | 8.92 4.73–13.10 3.60–14.23 | — | 46% 14% 41% |
| Possession % | 45.44 39.12–51.76 37.53–53.36 | — | 54.33 48.01–60.65 46.41–62.24 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 342 277–408 259–425 | — | 424 360–489 342–506 | — | 767 637–896 601–932 | — | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.83 60.62–69.05 59.32–70.35 | — | 73.55 69.04–78.06 67.71–79.39 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.73 9.87–15.59 8.99–16.47 | — | 13.39 10.44–16.34 9.53–17.25 | — | 26.12 20.32–31.92 18.51–33.72 | — | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.52–2.94 0.18–3.29 | — | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.33–3.32 | — | 3.56 1.19–5.94 0.52–6.61 | — | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.85 0.47–3.12 | — | 1.66 0.54–2.78 0.25–3.07 | — | 3.46 1.28–5.63 0.72–6.20 | — | 42% 22% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.71–4.54 1.32–4.93 | — | 2.61 1.06–4.17 0.63–4.60 | — | 5.74 2.77–8.71 1.95–9.53 | — | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+