FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.412.97safe0.59–2.520.56–2.271.15–4.79safer0.33–2.780.31–2.520.64–5.30actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.174.219.39safe3.32–7.032.50–5.925.82–12.95safer2.82–7.532.04–6.394.85–13.92
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6011.0624.65safe9.89–17.307.68–14.4417.57–31.74safer8.86–18.336.75–15.3715.61–33.70
Shots in box
17%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction5.348.3813.71safe2.82–7.856.08–10.688.90–18.53safer1.95–8.725.28–11.487.23–20.19
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.497.35safe2.27–5.442.08–4.904.35–10.35safer1.74–5.981.59–5.393.33–11.37
Corners
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.479.28safe2.60–7.022.49–6.445.09–13.46safer2.01–7.611.95–6.983.96–14.59
Possession %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction45.8553.55safe39.54–52.1747.23–59.87safer37.94–53.7745.64–61.47
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction325414740safe260–391350–479610–869safer242–408332–496574–905
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction63.1171.70safe58.90–67.3367.19–76.20safer57.60–68.6365.86–77.53
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7012.7524.46safe8.85–14.569.81–15.7018.65–30.26safer7.96–15.458.89–16.6216.85–32.06
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.883.58safe0.49–2.910.71–3.041.20–5.95safer0.14–3.250.38–3.370.53–6.62
Yellow cards
37%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.633.20safe0.52–2.630.51–2.751.03–5.38safer0.25–2.900.22–3.040.46–5.94
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.040.10safe0.00–0.210.00–0.230.00–0.44safer0.00–0.360.00–0.380.00–0.74
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.215.51safe0.88–3.711.66–4.762.54–8.48safer0.49–4.101.22–5.201.72–9.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.59–2.52 0.33–2.78 | 0.00 | 1.41 0.56–2.27 0.31–2.52 | 0.00 | 2.97 1.15–4.79 0.64–5.30 | 0.00 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.17 3.32–7.03 2.82–7.53 | — | 4.21 2.50–5.92 2.04–6.39 | — | 9.39 5.82–12.95 4.85–13.92 | — | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 13.60 9.89–17.30 8.86–18.33 | — | 11.06 7.68–14.44 6.75–15.37 | — | 24.65 17.57–31.74 15.61–33.70 | — | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 5.34 2.82–7.85 1.95–8.72 | — | 8.38 6.08–10.68 5.28–11.48 | — | 13.71 8.90–18.53 7.23–20.19 | — | 17% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 2.27–5.44 1.74–5.98 | — | 3.49 2.08–4.90 1.59–5.39 | — | 7.35 4.35–10.35 3.33–11.37 | — | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.60–7.02 2.01–7.61 | — | 4.47 2.49–6.44 1.95–6.98 | — | 9.28 5.09–13.46 3.96–14.59 | — | 48% 13% 39% |
| Possession % | 45.85 39.54–52.17 37.94–53.77 | — | 53.55 47.23–59.87 45.64–61.47 | — | — | — | 29% 66% |
| Passes | 325 260–391 242–408 | — | 414 350–479 332–496 | — | 740 610–869 574–905 | — | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.11 58.90–67.33 57.60–68.63 | — | 71.70 67.19–76.20 65.86–77.53 | — | — | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 11.70 8.85–14.56 7.96–15.45 | — | 12.75 9.81–15.70 8.89–16.62 | — | 24.46 18.65–30.26 16.85–32.06 | — | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.14–3.25 | — | 1.88 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | — | 3.58 1.20–5.95 0.53–6.62 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.52–2.63 0.25–2.90 | — | 1.63 0.51–2.75 0.22–3.04 | — | 3.20 1.03–5.38 0.46–5.94 | — | 37% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | — | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.88–3.71 0.49–4.10 | — | 3.21 1.66–4.76 1.22–5.20 | — | 5.51 2.54–8.48 1.72–9.30 | — | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.