FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.042.76safe0.75–2.680.18–1.900.93–4.58safer0.49–2.940.00–2.150.43–5.08actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
86%
homeawaytotalprediction4.971.766.73safe3.12–6.830.05–3.473.17–10.29safer2.62–7.330.00–3.932.20–11.26
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction15.837.4023.23safe12.13–19.544.02–10.7816.15–30.31safer11.10–20.573.09–11.7114.19–32.27
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction9.405.3114.71safe6.88–11.923.01–7.619.90–19.53safer6.02–12.782.22–8.418.23–21.19
Blocked shots
65%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.456.35safe2.32–5.481.03–3.863.35–9.35safer1.78–6.020.55–4.352.33–10.37
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.783.989.76safe3.57–7.982.01–5.965.58–13.95safer2.98–8.581.47–6.504.45–15.08
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction55.7243.64safe49.41–62.0437.32–49.96safer47.81–63.6435.73–51.56
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction462306768safe397–528241–370638–898safer379–545224–388603–933
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction75.8864.54safe71.67–80.1060.03–69.05safer70.37–81.4058.70–70.38
Fouls
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9711.7422.71safe8.11–13.828.80–14.6916.90–28.51safer7.22–14.717.88–15.6015.10–30.31
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.953.69safe0.54–2.950.78–3.111.32–6.06safer0.19–3.300.45–3.440.64–6.74
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.913.54safe0.57–2.690.79–3.031.37–5.72safer0.30–2.960.50–3.320.80–6.28
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.343.015.35safe0.93–3.761.45–4.562.38–8.32safer0.54–4.151.02–4.991.56–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.71 0.75–2.68 0.49–2.94 | 2.00 | 1.04 0.18–1.90 0.00–2.15 | 1.00 | 2.76 0.93–4.58 0.43–5.08 | 3.00 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 4.97 3.12–6.83 2.62–7.33 | — | 1.76 0.05–3.47 0.00–3.93 | — | 6.73 3.17–10.29 2.20–11.26 | — | 86% |
| Total shots | 15.83 12.13–19.54 11.10–20.57 | — | 7.40 4.02–10.78 3.09–11.71 | — | 23.23 16.15–30.31 14.19–32.27 | — | 95% |
| Shots in box | 9.40 6.88–11.92 6.02–12.78 | — | 5.31 3.01–7.61 2.22–8.41 | — | 14.71 9.90–19.53 8.23–21.19 | — | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 2.32–5.48 1.78–6.02 | — | 2.45 1.03–3.86 0.55–4.35 | — | 6.35 3.35–9.35 2.33–10.37 | — | 65% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.78 3.57–7.98 2.98–8.58 | — | 3.98 2.01–5.96 1.47–6.50 | — | 9.76 5.58–13.95 4.45–15.08 | — | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 55.72 49.41–62.04 47.81–63.64 | — | 43.64 37.32–49.96 35.73–51.56 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 462 397–528 379–545 | — | 306 241–370 224–388 | — | 768 638–898 603–933 | — | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.88 71.67–80.10 70.37–81.40 | — | 64.54 60.03–69.05 58.70–70.38 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.11–13.82 7.22–14.71 | — | 11.74 8.80–14.69 7.88–15.60 | — | 22.71 16.90–28.51 15.10–30.31 | — | 39% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.95 0.19–3.30 | — | 1.95 0.78–3.11 0.45–3.44 | — | 3.69 1.32–6.06 0.64–6.74 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.69 0.30–2.96 | — | 1.91 0.79–3.03 0.50–3.32 | — | 3.54 1.37–5.72 0.80–6.28 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.34 0.93–3.76 0.54–4.15 | — | 3.01 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.99 | — | 5.35 2.38–8.32 1.56–9.14 | — | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.