FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.202.72safe0.56–2.480.34–2.060.90–4.54safer0.30–2.740.09–2.310.39–5.05actual3.003.006.00
Shots on target
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.143.427.56safe2.28–5.991.71–5.134.00–11.12safer1.78–6.491.25–5.603.03–12.09
Total shots
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8212.1321.95safe6.12–13.538.75–15.5014.87–29.03safer5.09–14.567.82–16.4312.91–30.99
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction9.784.7614.54safe7.26–12.292.46–7.069.72–19.35safer6.40–13.161.66–7.868.06–21.01
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.692.295.98safe2.10–5.270.88–3.702.98–8.98safer1.57–5.810.39–4.191.96–10.00
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.514.6110.12safe3.31–7.722.63–6.595.94–14.31safer2.71–8.312.09–7.134.81–15.44
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.0249.16safe44.70–57.3442.84–55.48safer43.11–58.9341.24–57.07
Passes
56%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction390372762safe325–456307–436632–892safer307–473289–454597–927
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction72.7669.02safe68.54–76.9764.51–73.53safer67.24–78.2863.18–74.86
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0011.4322.43safe8.15–13.868.48–14.3716.63–28.23safer7.26–14.757.56–15.2914.83–30.04
Offsides
39%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.873.72safe0.64–3.060.71–3.031.35–6.09safer0.29–3.400.38–3.370.67–6.77
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.793.43safe0.58–2.690.67–2.911.25–5.60safer0.31–2.970.38–3.200.69–6.17
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.24safe0.00–0.280.00–0.300.00–0.58safer0.00–0.440.00–0.440.00–0.88
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.702.665.36safe1.28–4.111.10–4.212.39–8.32safer0.90–4.500.67–4.641.57–9.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.48 0.30–2.74 | 3.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.09–2.31 | 3.00 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.39–5.05 | 6.00 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–5.99 1.78–6.49 | — | 3.42 1.71–5.13 1.25–5.60 | — | 7.56 4.00–11.12 3.03–12.09 | — | 53% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 9.82 6.12–13.53 5.09–14.56 | — | 12.13 8.75–15.50 7.82–16.43 | — | 21.95 14.87–29.03 12.91–30.99 | — | 27% 65% |
| Shots in box | 9.78 7.26–12.29 6.40–13.16 | — | 4.76 2.46–7.06 1.66–7.86 | — | 14.54 9.72–19.35 8.06–21.01 | — | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 2.10–5.27 1.57–5.81 | — | 2.29 0.88–3.70 0.39–4.19 | — | 5.98 2.98–8.98 1.96–10.00 | — | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.51 3.31–7.72 2.71–8.31 | — | 4.61 2.63–6.59 2.09–7.13 | — | 10.12 5.94–14.31 4.81–15.44 | — | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.02 44.70–57.34 43.11–58.93 | — | 49.16 42.84–55.48 41.24–57.07 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 390 325–456 307–473 | — | 372 307–436 289–454 | — | 762 632–892 597–927 | — | 56% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.76 68.54–76.97 67.24–78.28 | — | 69.02 64.51–73.53 63.18–74.86 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 11.00 8.15–13.86 7.26–14.75 | — | 11.43 8.48–14.37 7.56–15.29 | — | 22.43 16.63–28.23 14.83–30.04 | — | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.64–3.06 0.29–3.40 | — | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.38–3.37 | — | 3.72 1.35–6.09 0.67–6.77 | — | 39% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.58–2.69 0.31–2.97 | — | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | — | 3.43 1.25–5.60 0.69–6.17 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | — | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.28–4.11 0.90–4.50 | — | 2.66 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | — | 5.36 2.39–8.32 1.57–9.15 | — | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+