FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
42%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.272.76safe0.52–2.450.41–2.130.94–4.58safer0.26–2.710.16–2.380.43–5.09actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.945.3111.24safe4.08–7.793.60–7.027.68–14.81safer3.58–8.293.13–7.486.71–15.78
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5110.8124.32safe9.81–17.227.43–14.1917.24–31.40safer8.78–18.256.50–15.1215.28–33.36
Shots in box
13%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.449.1414.58safe2.92–7.956.84–11.449.76–19.40safer2.06–8.826.04–12.248.10–21.06
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.766.90safe1.56–4.732.34–5.173.90–9.90safer1.02–5.261.86–5.662.88–10.92
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.945.009.94safe2.74–7.153.03–6.985.76–14.13safer2.14–7.742.49–7.524.63–15.26
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction45.5652.98safe39.24–51.8846.66–59.30safer37.65–53.4745.07–60.90
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction343419762safe277–408354–484632–892safer260–426337–501597–927
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction61.9270.23safe57.71–66.1465.72–74.73safer56.41–67.4464.39–76.06
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1113.0425.16safe9.26–14.9710.10–15.9919.36–30.96safer8.37–15.869.18–16.9117.55–32.76
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.743.36safe0.41–2.830.58–2.900.99–5.73safer0.07–3.180.24–3.230.31–6.41
Yellow cards
34%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.803.36safe0.50–2.610.68–2.921.18–5.53safer0.23–2.880.39–3.210.62–6.09
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.11safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
29%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.925.13safe0.80–3.631.36–4.472.16–8.10safer0.41–4.020.93–4.901.34–8.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.45 0.26–2.71 | 3.00 | 1.27 0.41–2.13 0.16–2.38 | 1.00 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.43–5.09 | 4.00 | 42% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.94 4.08–7.79 3.58–8.29 | — | 5.31 3.60–7.02 3.13–7.48 | — | 11.24 7.68–14.81 6.71–15.78 | — | 51% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.51 9.81–17.22 8.78–18.25 | — | 10.81 7.43–14.19 6.50–15.12 | — | 24.32 17.24–31.40 15.28–33.36 | — | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 5.44 2.92–7.95 2.06–8.82 | — | 9.14 6.84–11.44 6.04–12.24 | — | 14.58 9.76–19.40 8.10–21.06 | — | 13% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.56–4.73 1.02–5.26 | — | 3.76 2.34–5.17 1.86–5.66 | — | 6.90 3.90–9.90 2.88–10.92 | — | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.94 2.74–7.15 2.14–7.74 | — | 5.00 3.03–6.98 2.49–7.52 | — | 9.94 5.76–14.13 4.63–15.26 | — | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 45.56 39.24–51.88 37.65–53.47 | — | 52.98 46.66–59.30 45.07–60.90 | — | — | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 343 277–408 260–426 | — | 419 354–484 337–501 | — | 762 632–892 597–927 | — | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.92 57.71–66.14 56.41–67.44 | — | 70.23 65.72–74.73 64.39–76.06 | — | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.11 9.26–14.97 8.37–15.86 | — | 13.04 10.10–15.99 9.18–16.91 | — | 25.16 19.36–30.96 17.55–32.76 | — | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.41–2.83 0.07–3.18 | — | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.24–3.23 | — | 3.36 0.99–5.73 0.31–6.41 | — | 36% 23% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.61 0.23–2.88 | — | 1.80 0.68–2.92 0.39–3.21 | — | 3.36 1.18–5.53 0.62–6.09 | — | 34% 23% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.22 0.80–3.63 0.41–4.02 | — | 2.92 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | — | 5.13 2.16–8.10 1.34–8.92 | — | 29% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+