FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.132.66safe0.57–2.490.27–1.990.84–4.48safer0.31–2.750.03–2.240.33–4.99actual3.003.006.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.768.53safe2.91–6.622.06–5.474.97–12.09safer2.41–7.121.59–5.944.00–13.06
Total shots
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction11.458.9420.39safe7.75–15.155.57–12.3213.31–27.47safer6.71–16.184.63–13.2511.35–29.44
Shots in box
55%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.263.27safe0.00–4.520.00–3.560.00–8.09safer0.00–5.390.00–4.360.00–9.75
Blocked shots
27%
54%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction0.430.330.76safe0.00–2.010.00–1.740.00–3.75safer0.00–2.550.00–2.230.00–4.77
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.254.179.42safe3.04–7.452.20–6.155.24–13.60safer2.45–8.051.66–6.694.11–14.74
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.4146.96safe46.09–58.7340.64–53.28safer44.49–60.3239.04–54.88
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction430354784safe365–495290–419654–914safer347–513272–436619–949
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction71.8067.48safe67.58–76.0162.97–71.99safer66.28–77.3161.64–73.32
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4911.5123.00safe8.63–14.358.56–14.4517.20–28.80safer7.75–15.237.65–15.3715.40–30.61
Offsides
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.102.49safe0.18–2.600.00–2.270.12–4.86safer0.00–2.940.00–2.600.00–5.54
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.933.49safe0.50–2.620.81–3.051.31–5.67safer0.23–2.890.52–3.340.75–6.23
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.384.37safe0.58–3.410.83–3.941.41–7.34safer0.19–3.790.40–4.370.58–8.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.57–2.49 0.31–2.75 | 3.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.99 0.03–2.24 | 3.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.33–4.99 | 6.00 | 46% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.62 2.41–7.12 | — | 3.76 2.06–5.47 1.59–5.94 | — | 8.53 4.97–12.09 4.00–13.06 | — | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 11.45 7.75–15.15 6.71–16.18 | — | 8.94 5.57–12.32 4.63–13.25 | — | 20.39 13.31–27.47 11.35–29.44 | — | 67% 25% |
| Shots in box | 2.01 0.00–4.52 0.00–5.39 | — | 1.26 0.00–3.56 0.00–4.36 | — | 3.27 0.00–8.09 0.00–9.75 | — | 55% 22% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 0.43 0.00–2.01 0.00–2.55 | — | 0.33 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.23 | — | 0.76 0.00–3.75 0.00–4.77 | — | 27% 54% 19% |
| Corners | 5.25 3.04–7.45 2.45–8.05 | — | 4.17 2.20–6.15 1.66–6.69 | — | 9.42 5.24–13.60 4.11–14.74 | — | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.41 46.09–58.73 44.49–60.32 | — | 46.96 40.64–53.28 39.04–54.88 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 430 365–495 347–513 | — | 354 290–419 272–436 | — | 784 654–914 619–949 | — | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.80 67.58–76.01 66.28–77.31 | — | 67.48 62.97–71.99 61.64–73.32 | — | — | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.49 8.63–14.35 7.75–15.23 | — | 11.51 8.56–14.45 7.65–15.37 | — | 23.00 17.20–28.80 15.40–30.61 | — | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.18–2.60 0.00–2.94 | — | 1.10 0.00–2.27 0.00–2.60 | — | 2.49 0.12–4.86 0.00–5.54 | — | 43% 27% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.50–2.62 0.23–2.89 | — | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | — | 3.49 1.31–5.67 0.75–6.23 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.99 0.58–3.41 0.19–3.79 | — | 2.38 0.83–3.94 0.40–4.37 | — | 4.37 1.41–7.34 0.58–8.16 | — | 33% 19% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.