FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.282.75safe0.51–2.440.42–2.140.93–4.57safer0.25–2.700.17–2.380.42–5.08actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.089.13safe3.19–6.902.37–5.795.56–12.69safer2.69–7.401.90–6.254.60–13.66
Total shots
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction11.768.9720.72safe8.05–15.465.59–12.3413.64–27.80safer7.02–16.494.66–13.2711.68–29.77
Shots in box
49%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.263.01safe0.00–4.270.00–3.560.00–7.83safer0.00–5.140.00–4.350.00–9.49
Blocked shots
28%
54%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction0.440.310.75safe0.00–2.030.00–1.730.00–3.75safer0.00–2.560.00–2.210.00–4.77
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.554.269.81safe3.35–7.762.28–6.245.63–14.00safer2.75–8.351.74–6.784.50–15.13
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction51.9946.56safe45.67–58.3040.24–52.88safer44.07–59.9038.64–54.47
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction422380802safe357–488315–444672–932safer339–505298–462637–967
Pass accuracy %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction70.3967.69safe66.18–74.6163.18–72.20safer64.87–75.9161.85–73.53
Fouls
46%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3213.3926.71safe10.47–16.1810.44–16.3320.91–32.51safer9.58–17.079.53–17.2519.11–34.32
Offsides
47%
28%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.350.902.25safe0.14–2.560.00–2.060.00–4.62safer0.00–2.900.00–2.400.00–5.30
Yellow cards
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.783.28safe0.45–2.560.66–2.901.10–5.46safer0.17–2.830.37–3.190.54–6.02
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.454.19safe0.32–3.150.90–4.011.22–7.16safer0.00–3.540.47–4.440.40–7.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 1.00 | 1.28 0.42–2.14 0.17–2.38 | 3.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 4.00 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.19–6.90 2.69–7.40 | — | 4.08 2.37–5.79 1.90–6.25 | — | 9.13 5.56–12.69 4.60–13.66 | — | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 11.76 8.05–15.46 7.02–16.49 | — | 8.97 5.59–12.34 4.66–13.27 | — | 20.72 13.64–27.80 11.68–29.77 | — | 69% 23% |
| Shots in box | 1.76 0.00–4.27 0.00–5.14 | — | 1.26 0.00–3.56 0.00–4.35 | — | 3.01 0.00–7.83 0.00–9.49 | — | 49% 23% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 0.44 0.00–2.03 0.00–2.56 | — | 0.31 0.00–1.73 0.00–2.21 | — | 0.75 0.00–3.75 0.00–4.77 | — | 28% 54% 18% |
| Corners | 5.55 3.35–7.76 2.75–8.35 | — | 4.26 2.28–6.24 1.74–6.78 | — | 9.81 5.63–14.00 4.50–15.13 | — | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.99 45.67–58.30 44.07–59.90 | — | 46.56 40.24–52.88 38.64–54.47 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 422 357–488 339–505 | — | 380 315–444 298–462 | — | 802 672–932 637–967 | — | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.39 66.18–74.61 64.87–75.91 | — | 67.69 63.18–72.20 61.85–73.53 | — | — | — | 61% 35% |
| Fouls | 13.32 10.47–16.18 9.58–17.07 | — | 13.39 10.44–16.33 9.53–17.25 | — | 26.71 20.91–32.51 19.11–34.32 | — | 46% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.14–2.56 0.00–2.90 | — | 0.90 0.00–2.06 0.00–2.40 | — | 2.25 0.00–4.62 0.00–5.30 | — | 47% 28% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.56 0.17–2.83 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.28 1.10–5.46 0.54–6.02 | — | 33% 23% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.74 0.32–3.15 0.00–3.54 | — | 2.45 0.90–4.01 0.47–4.44 | — | 4.19 1.22–7.16 0.40–7.98 | — | 27% 19% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.