Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.202.81safe0.65–2.580.34–2.060.99–4.63safer0.39–2.840.09–2.300.48–5.14actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.489.62safe3.28–6.992.77–6.186.05–13.18safer2.78–7.492.30–6.655.08–14.15
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7311.9523.68safe8.02–15.438.58–15.3316.60–30.76safer6.99–16.467.65–16.2614.64–32.72
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.537.3316.87safe7.01–12.055.03–9.6412.05–21.68safer6.15–12.914.24–10.4310.39–23.34
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.403.126.52safe1.82–4.981.70–4.533.52–9.52safer1.28–5.521.22–5.022.50–10.54
Corners
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.808.17safe2.16–6.571.83–5.783.99–12.35safer1.56–7.161.29–6.322.85–13.48
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.4049.86safe43.08–55.7143.54–56.18safer41.48–57.3141.94–57.77
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction441395836safe376–507330–459706–966safer358–524313–477671–1001
Pass accuracy %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction77.9874.48safe73.76–82.1969.97–78.99safer72.46–83.5068.64–80.32
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5712.1423.71safe8.71–14.429.20–15.0917.91–29.51safer7.83–15.318.28–16.0116.11–31.32
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.663.23safe0.36–2.780.49–2.820.86–5.60safer0.02–3.130.16–3.150.18–6.28
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.103.83safe0.67–2.790.98–3.221.66–6.01safer0.40–3.060.69–3.511.09–6.57
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.532.605.13safe1.11–3.941.05–4.162.16–8.10safer0.72–4.330.62–4.591.34–8.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.65–2.58 0.39–2.84 | 5.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.09–2.30 | 0.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 5.00 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.14 3.28–6.99 2.78–7.49 | — | 4.48 2.77–6.18 2.30–6.65 | — | 9.62 6.05–13.18 5.08–14.15 | — | 52% 35% |
| Total shots | 11.73 8.02–15.43 6.99–16.46 | — | 11.95 8.58–15.33 7.65–16.26 | — | 23.68 16.60–30.76 14.64–32.72 | — | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 9.53 7.01–12.05 6.15–12.91 | — | 7.33 5.03–9.64 4.24–10.43 | — | 16.87 12.05–21.68 10.39–23.34 | — | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 1.82–4.98 1.28–5.52 | — | 3.12 1.70–4.53 1.22–5.02 | — | 6.52 3.52–9.52 2.50–10.54 | — | 46% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 4.36 2.16–6.57 1.56–7.16 | — | 3.80 1.83–5.78 1.29–6.32 | — | 8.17 3.99–12.35 2.85–13.48 | — | 51% 14% 35% |
| Possession % | 49.40 43.08–55.71 41.48–57.31 | — | 49.86 43.54–56.18 41.94–57.77 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 441 376–507 358–524 | — | 395 330–459 313–477 | — | 836 706–966 671–1001 | — | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.98 73.76–82.19 72.46–83.50 | — | 74.48 69.97–78.99 68.64–80.32 | — | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Fouls | 11.57 8.71–14.42 7.83–15.31 | — | 12.14 9.20–15.09 8.28–16.01 | — | 23.71 17.91–29.51 16.11–31.32 | — | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.36–2.78 0.02–3.13 | — | 1.66 0.49–2.82 0.16–3.15 | — | 3.23 0.86–5.60 0.18–6.28 | — | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.67–2.79 0.40–3.06 | — | 2.10 0.98–3.22 0.69–3.51 | — | 3.83 1.66–6.01 1.09–6.57 | — | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.11–3.94 0.72–4.33 | — | 2.60 1.05–4.16 0.62–4.59 | — | 5.13 2.16–8.10 1.34–8.92 | — | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.