Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
23%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.762.88safe0.15–2.090.91–2.621.06–4.71safer0.00–2.340.68–2.850.58–5.18
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.785.709.47safe1.91–5.643.96–7.445.87–13.08safer1.42–6.133.49–7.914.91–14.03
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0615.9225.98safe6.14–13.9912.36–19.4818.50–33.47safer5.05–15.0811.40–20.4416.45–35.52
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction6.399.4115.80safe3.45–9.336.73–12.0910.18–21.42safer2.62–10.165.99–12.838.61–22.99
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.034.017.04safe1.15–4.912.36–5.673.50–10.58safer0.60–5.451.87–6.162.47–11.61
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.305.079.38safe2.09–6.523.07–7.075.16–13.59safer1.52–7.092.54–7.614.05–14.70
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction45.1455.33safe38.35–51.9348.55–62.12safer36.68–53.6046.88–63.79
Passes
38%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction338373711safe271–405307–440577–845safer253–423289–457542–880
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction67.0776.00safe63.04–71.1071.68–80.33safer61.75–72.3970.37–81.64
Fouls
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3210.6825.01safe11.49–17.167.74–13.6319.23–30.79safer10.73–17.926.99–14.3817.72–32.29
Offsides
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.244.17safe0.77–3.091.15–3.331.92–6.43safer0.47–3.390.86–3.621.33–7.01
Yellow cards
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.303.52safe1.16–3.260.17–2.431.34–5.69safer0.90–3.530.00–2.720.78–6.25
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.100.24safe0.00–0.300.00–0.280.00–0.59safer0.00–0.450.00–0.410.00–0.87
GK saves
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.473.016.49safe2.03–4.911.46–4.573.49–9.48safer1.65–5.291.03–5.002.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 1.76 0.91–2.62 0.68–2.85 | 2.88 1.06–4.71 0.58–5.18 | 24% 23% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.91–5.64 1.42–6.13 | 5.70 3.96–7.44 3.49–7.91 | 9.47 5.87–13.08 4.91–14.03 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 10.06 6.14–13.99 5.05–15.08 | 15.92 12.36–19.48 11.40–20.44 | 25.98 18.50–33.47 16.45–35.52 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 6.39 3.45–9.33 2.62–10.16 | 9.41 6.73–12.09 5.99–12.83 | 15.80 10.18–21.42 8.61–22.99 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.03 1.15–4.91 0.60–5.45 | 4.01 2.36–5.67 1.87–6.16 | 7.04 3.50–10.58 2.47–11.61 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.30 2.09–6.52 1.52–7.09 | 5.07 3.07–7.07 2.54–7.61 | 9.38 5.16–13.59 4.05–14.70 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 45.14 38.35–51.93 36.68–53.60 | 55.33 48.55–62.12 46.88–63.79 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 338 271–405 253–423 | 373 307–440 289–457 | 711 577–845 542–880 | 38% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.07 63.04–71.10 61.75–72.39 | 76.00 71.68–80.33 70.37–81.64 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 14.32 11.49–17.16 10.73–17.92 | 10.68 7.74–13.63 6.99–14.38 | 25.01 19.23–30.79 17.72–32.29 | 74% 20% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 2.24 1.15–3.33 0.86–3.62 | 4.17 1.92–6.43 1.33–7.01 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.16–3.26 0.90–3.53 | 1.30 0.17–2.43 0.00–2.72 | 3.52 1.34–5.69 0.78–6.25 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.47 2.03–4.91 1.65–5.29 | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–5.00 | 6.49 3.49–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 49% 16% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.