Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.172.50safe0.36–2.290.31–2.030.67–4.32safer0.10–2.550.07–2.280.17–4.83actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.324.488.79safe2.46–6.172.77–6.185.23–12.35safer1.96–6.672.30–6.654.26–13.32
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3410.8722.21safe7.64–15.047.49–14.2515.13–29.29safer6.60–16.076.56–15.1813.17–31.25
Shots in box
60%
20%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.213.40safe0.00–4.710.00–3.510.00–8.22safer0.00–5.580.00–4.300.00–9.88
Blocked shots
22%
57%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction0.340.330.67safe0.00–1.930.00–1.740.00–3.67safer0.00–2.460.00–2.230.00–4.69
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.419.41safe2.79–7.202.43–6.395.22–13.59safer2.20–7.801.90–6.934.09–14.72
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction49.4449.12safe43.12–55.7642.81–55.44safer41.53–57.3541.21–57.04
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction417368784safe351–482303–432654–914safer334–500286–450619–949
Pass accuracy %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction72.9071.26safe68.68–77.1166.75–75.77safer67.38–78.4265.42–77.10
Fouls
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.087.5017.57safe7.22–12.934.55–10.4411.77–23.38safer6.33–13.823.64–11.369.97–25.18
Offsides
19%
29%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction0.641.291.93safe0.00–1.850.13–2.450.00–4.30safer0.00–2.200.00–2.780.00–4.98
Yellow cards
34%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.194.09safe0.84–2.951.07–3.311.91–6.26safer0.57–3.230.78–3.601.35–6.83
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
43%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.122.48safe0.00–2.780.00–2.670.00–5.45safer0.00–3.170.00–3.100.00–6.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.55 | 2.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 0.00 | 2.50 0.67–4.32 0.17–4.83 | 2.00 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.32 2.46–6.17 1.96–6.67 | — | 4.48 2.77–6.18 2.30–6.65 | — | 8.79 5.23–12.35 4.26–13.32 | — | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 11.34 7.64–15.04 6.60–16.07 | — | 10.87 7.49–14.25 6.56–15.18 | — | 22.21 15.13–29.29 13.17–31.25 | — | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 2.20 0.00–4.71 0.00–5.58 | — | 1.21 0.00–3.51 0.00–4.30 | — | 3.40 0.00–8.22 0.00–9.88 | — | 60% 20% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 0.34 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.46 | — | 0.33 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.23 | — | 0.67 0.00–3.67 0.00–4.69 | — | 22% 57% 21% |
| Corners | 5.00 2.79–7.20 2.20–7.80 | — | 4.41 2.43–6.39 1.90–6.93 | — | 9.41 5.22–13.59 4.09–14.72 | — | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 49.44 43.12–55.76 41.53–57.35 | — | 49.12 42.81–55.44 41.21–57.04 | — | — | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 417 351–482 334–500 | — | 368 303–432 286–450 | — | 784 654–914 619–949 | — | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.90 68.68–77.11 67.38–78.42 | — | 71.26 66.75–75.77 65.42–77.10 | — | — | — | 56% 40% |
| Fouls | 10.08 7.22–12.93 6.33–13.82 | — | 7.50 4.55–10.44 3.64–11.36 | — | 17.57 11.77–23.38 9.97–25.18 | — | 69% 23% |
| Offsides | 0.64 0.00–1.85 0.00–2.20 | — | 1.29 0.13–2.45 0.00–2.78 | — | 1.93 0.00–4.30 0.00–4.98 | — | 19% 29% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.84–2.95 0.57–3.23 | — | 2.19 1.07–3.31 0.78–3.60 | — | 4.09 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.83 | — | 34% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.37 0.00–2.78 0.00–3.17 | — | 1.12 0.00–2.67 0.00–3.10 | — | 2.48 0.00–5.45 0.00–6.27 | — | 43% 27% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.