Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.222.62safe0.43–2.370.37–2.080.80–4.44safer0.18–2.620.14–2.310.32–4.92
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.364.308.66safe2.50–6.232.56–6.045.06–12.27safer2.01–6.712.09–6.514.10–13.22
Total shots
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6610.5121.17safe6.74–14.596.94–14.0713.68–28.66safer5.65–15.685.98–15.0311.63–30.71
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.567.4415.00safe4.61–10.504.76–10.139.38–20.62safer3.78–11.334.03–10.867.81–22.19
Blocked shots
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.705.55safe0.97–4.731.05–4.362.02–9.09safer0.42–5.280.56–4.850.98–10.12
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.409.49safe2.88–7.312.40–6.405.28–13.71safer2.31–7.881.86–6.934.17–14.81
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.7750.37safe42.98–56.5643.58–57.15safer41.31–58.2341.91–58.82
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction402399801safe335–469333–466667–935safer317–487315–483632–971
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction72.7371.41safe68.70–76.7667.09–75.74safer67.41–78.0565.78–77.04
Fouls
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9113.3227.22safe11.07–16.7510.37–16.2621.44–33.01safer10.31–17.509.62–17.0119.94–34.51
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.963.95safe0.82–3.140.87–3.061.69–6.20safer0.52–3.440.58–3.341.10–6.79
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.224.32safe1.05–3.141.09–3.352.14–6.50safer0.78–3.410.80–3.641.58–7.05
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.110.25safe0.00–0.300.00–0.290.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.420.00–0.88
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.206.04safe1.40–4.281.64–4.753.05–9.03safer1.02–4.661.22–5.182.23–9.84
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.22 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.23 2.01–6.71 | 4.30 2.56–6.04 2.09–6.51 | 8.66 5.06–12.27 4.10–13.22 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 10.66 6.74–14.59 5.65–15.68 | 10.51 6.94–14.07 5.98–15.03 | 21.17 13.68–28.66 11.63–30.71 | 47% 44% |
| Shots in box | 7.56 4.61–10.50 3.78–11.33 | 7.44 4.76–10.13 4.03–10.86 | 15.00 9.38–20.62 7.81–22.19 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 2.85 0.97–4.73 0.42–5.28 | 2.70 1.05–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 5.55 2.02–9.09 0.98–10.12 | 44% 17% 39% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.88–7.31 2.31–7.88 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.86–6.93 | 9.49 5.28–13.71 4.17–14.81 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 49.77 42.98–56.56 41.31–58.23 | 50.37 43.58–57.15 41.91–58.82 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 402 335–469 317–487 | 399 333–466 315–483 | 801 667–935 632–971 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.73 68.70–76.76 67.41–78.05 | 71.41 67.09–75.74 65.78–77.04 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 13.91 11.07–16.75 10.31–17.50 | 13.32 10.37–16.26 9.62–17.01 | 27.22 21.44–33.01 19.94–34.51 | 51% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.96 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.34 | 3.95 1.69–6.20 1.10–6.79 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.05–3.14 0.78–3.41 | 2.22 1.09–3.35 0.80–3.64 | 4.32 2.14–6.50 1.58–7.05 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.28 1.02–4.66 | 3.20 1.64–4.75 1.22–5.18 | 6.04 3.05–9.03 2.23–9.84 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+