Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.192.54safe0.39–2.310.33–2.050.72–4.36safer0.13–2.570.09–2.300.21–4.87actual1.005.006.00
Shots on target
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.784.598.37safe1.92–5.632.88–6.304.81–11.93safer1.42–6.132.41–6.773.84–12.90
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0412.4525.49safe9.34–16.759.07–15.8318.41–32.57safer8.31–17.788.14–16.7616.45–34.54
Shots in box
28%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.906.3911.29safe2.38–7.424.09–8.696.47–16.11safer1.52–8.283.29–9.494.81–17.77
Blocked shots
25%
17%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.824.69safe0.30–3.461.40–4.231.70–7.69safer0.00–4.000.91–4.720.68–8.71
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.399.54safe2.94–7.352.41–6.375.35–13.72safer2.35–7.951.87–6.914.22–14.85
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction52.1146.87safe45.79–58.4340.55–53.19safer44.20–60.0338.95–54.79
Passes
76%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction446363810safe381–512299–428680–940safer363–529281–446645–975
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction77.2773.32safe73.06–81.4968.82–77.83safer71.76–82.7967.48–79.16
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1511.2421.39safe7.29–13.008.30–14.1915.59–27.19safer6.40–13.897.38–15.1113.78–28.99
Offsides
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.442.063.50safe0.23–2.650.89–3.221.13–5.87safer0.00–2.990.56–3.550.45–6.55
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.214.02safe0.76–2.871.09–3.331.85–6.20safer0.48–3.140.80–3.621.28–6.76
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.765.71safe1.53–4.361.20–4.312.74–8.68safer1.14–4.750.77–4.741.92–9.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.31 0.13–2.57 | 1.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.09–2.30 | 5.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 6.00 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.92–5.63 1.42–6.13 | — | 4.59 2.88–6.30 2.41–6.77 | — | 8.37 4.81–11.93 3.84–12.90 | — | 32% 14% 54% |
| Total shots | 13.04 9.34–16.75 8.31–17.78 | — | 12.45 9.07–15.83 8.14–16.76 | — | 25.49 18.41–32.57 16.45–34.54 | — | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 4.90 2.38–7.42 1.52–8.28 | — | 6.39 4.09–8.69 3.29–9.49 | — | 11.29 6.47–16.11 4.81–17.77 | — | 28% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 1.88 0.30–3.46 0.00–4.00 | — | 2.82 1.40–4.23 0.91–4.72 | — | 4.69 1.70–7.69 0.68–8.71 | — | 25% 17% 58% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.35 2.35–7.95 | — | 4.39 2.41–6.37 1.87–6.91 | — | 9.54 5.35–13.72 4.22–14.85 | — | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 52.11 45.79–58.43 44.20–60.03 | — | 46.87 40.55–53.19 38.95–54.79 | — | — | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 446 381–512 363–529 | — | 363 299–428 281–446 | — | 810 680–940 645–975 | — | 76% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.27 73.06–81.49 71.76–82.79 | — | 73.32 68.82–77.83 67.48–79.16 | — | — | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 10.15 7.29–13.00 6.40–13.89 | — | 11.24 8.30–14.19 7.38–15.11 | — | 21.39 15.59–27.19 13.78–28.99 | — | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.23–2.65 0.00–2.99 | — | 2.06 0.89–3.22 0.56–3.55 | — | 3.50 1.13–5.87 0.45–6.55 | — | 27% 21% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.87 0.48–3.14 | — | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | — | 4.02 1.85–6.20 1.28–6.76 | — | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.53–4.36 1.14–4.75 | — | 2.76 1.20–4.31 0.77–4.74 | — | 5.71 2.74–8.68 1.92–9.50 | — | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.