Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
21%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.030.962.99safe1.06–3.000.11–1.821.17–4.82safer0.81–3.250.00–2.050.69–5.30
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.533.288.80safe3.66–7.391.53–5.025.20–12.41safer3.17–7.881.07–5.494.24–13.36
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction13.788.9722.75safe9.86–17.705.40–12.5315.26–30.23safer8.76–18.804.44–13.4913.21–32.28
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction8.926.0114.93safe5.98–11.873.33–8.699.31–20.56safer5.15–12.702.59–9.437.74–22.12
Blocked shots
47%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.182.836.02safe1.30–5.061.18–4.492.48–9.55safer0.76–5.610.69–4.981.45–10.59
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.123.849.96safe3.91–8.341.84–5.845.74–14.17safer3.33–8.911.30–6.374.64–15.28
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction56.5643.16safe49.77–63.3536.37–49.94safer48.10–65.0234.70–51.62
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction480345826safe413–547279–412692–959safer395–565261–429656–995
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction76.6269.58safe72.59–80.6565.25–73.90safer71.30–81.9463.94–75.21
Fouls
47%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1413.0826.22safe10.30–15.9810.14–16.0320.44–32.00safer9.54–16.739.39–16.7718.93–33.51
Offsides
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.793.85safe0.90–3.220.70–2.881.60–6.11safer0.60–3.520.41–3.171.01–6.70
Yellow cards
22%
19%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.483.98safe0.45–2.551.35–3.611.80–6.16safer0.18–2.821.06–3.901.25–6.72
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
27%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.516.06safe1.11–3.981.96–5.073.07–9.05safer0.72–4.371.53–5.492.26–9.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 1.06–3.00 0.81–3.25 | 0.96 0.11–1.82 0.00–2.05 | 2.99 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.30 | 62% 21% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.53 3.66–7.39 3.17–7.88 | 3.28 1.53–5.02 1.07–5.49 | 8.80 5.20–12.41 4.24–13.36 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 13.78 9.86–17.70 8.76–18.80 | 8.97 5.40–12.53 4.44–13.49 | 22.75 15.26–30.23 13.21–32.28 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 8.92 5.98–11.87 5.15–12.70 | 6.01 3.33–8.69 2.59–9.43 | 14.93 9.31–20.56 7.74–22.12 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.30–5.06 0.76–5.61 | 2.83 1.18–4.49 0.69–4.98 | 6.02 2.48–9.55 1.45–10.59 | 47% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.91–8.34 3.33–8.91 | 3.84 1.84–5.84 1.30–6.37 | 9.96 5.74–14.17 4.64–15.28 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 56.56 49.77–63.35 48.10–65.02 | 43.16 36.37–49.94 34.70–51.62 | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 480 413–547 395–565 | 345 279–412 261–429 | 826 692–959 656–995 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.62 72.59–80.65 71.30–81.94 | 69.58 65.25–73.90 63.94–75.21 | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 13.14 10.30–15.98 9.54–16.73 | 13.08 10.14–16.03 9.39–16.77 | 26.22 20.44–32.00 18.93–33.51 | 47% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.52 | 1.79 0.70–2.88 0.41–3.17 | 3.85 1.60–6.11 1.01–6.70 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.18–2.82 | 2.48 1.35–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 22% 19% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.11–3.98 0.72–4.37 | 3.51 1.96–5.07 1.53–5.49 | 6.06 3.07–9.05 2.26–9.86 | 27% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.