Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.142.50safe0.40–2.330.28–2.000.68–4.33safer0.14–2.590.03–2.240.17–4.83actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.104.128.22safe2.24–5.962.42–5.834.66–11.79safer1.74–6.451.95–6.303.69–12.75
Total shots
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9210.1421.06safe7.21–14.626.76–13.5213.98–28.14safer6.18–15.655.83–14.4512.01–30.10
Shots in box
70%
14%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.241.594.84safe0.73–5.760.00–3.900.02–9.65safer0.00–6.620.00–4.690.00–11.31
Blocked shots
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.052.33safe0.00–2.860.00–2.460.00–5.33safer0.00–3.400.00–2.950.00–6.35
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.239.35safe2.91–7.322.25–6.215.16–13.53safer2.31–7.911.72–6.754.03–14.66
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction52.3847.12safe46.06–58.7040.80–53.44safer44.47–60.3039.20–55.03
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction419348767safe353–484283–413637–897safer336–502266–430602–932
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction77.2272.31safe73.00–81.4367.80–76.82safer71.70–82.7366.47–78.15
Fouls
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction7.874.6412.52safe5.02–10.731.70–7.596.71–18.32safer4.13–11.620.78–8.514.91–20.12
Offsides
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.883.37safe0.29–2.700.71–3.041.00–5.74safer0.00–3.050.38–3.370.32–6.42
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.214.12safe0.86–2.971.09–3.331.95–6.30safer0.59–3.240.80–3.621.39–6.86
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.344.65safe0.89–3.720.79–3.901.68–7.62safer0.50–4.110.36–4.330.86–8.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.59 | 1.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.03–2.24 | 0.00 | 2.50 0.68–4.33 0.17–4.83 | 1.00 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.10 2.24–5.96 1.74–6.45 | — | 4.12 2.42–5.83 1.95–6.30 | — | 8.22 4.66–11.79 3.69–12.75 | — | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 10.92 7.21–14.62 6.18–15.65 | — | 10.14 6.76–13.52 5.83–14.45 | — | 21.06 13.98–28.14 12.01–30.10 | — | 52% 39% |
| Shots in box | 3.24 0.73–5.76 0.00–6.62 | — | 1.59 0.00–3.90 0.00–4.69 | — | 4.84 0.02–9.65 0.00–11.31 | — | 70% 14% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 1.28 0.00–2.86 0.00–3.40 | — | 1.05 0.00–2.46 0.00–2.95 | — | 2.33 0.00–5.33 0.00–6.35 | — | 42% 28% 30% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.91–7.32 2.31–7.91 | — | 4.23 2.25–6.21 1.72–6.75 | — | 9.35 5.16–13.53 4.03–14.66 | — | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 52.38 46.06–58.70 44.47–60.30 | — | 47.12 40.80–53.44 39.20–55.03 | — | — | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 419 353–484 336–502 | — | 348 283–413 266–430 | — | 767 637–897 602–932 | — | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.22 73.00–81.43 71.70–82.73 | — | 72.31 67.80–76.82 66.47–78.15 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 7.87 5.02–10.73 4.13–11.62 | — | 4.64 1.70–7.59 0.78–8.51 | — | 12.52 6.71–18.32 4.91–20.12 | — | 78% 14% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.29–2.70 0.00–3.05 | — | 1.88 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | — | 3.37 1.00–5.74 0.32–6.42 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.97 0.59–3.24 | — | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | — | 4.12 1.95–6.30 1.39–6.86 | — | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.89–3.72 0.50–4.11 | — | 2.34 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | — | 4.65 1.68–7.62 0.86–8.44 | — | 40% 19% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.