Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
45%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.172.69safe0.55–2.480.31–2.030.86–4.51safer0.29–2.740.07–2.280.36–5.02actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.235.319.54safe2.38–6.093.60–7.025.98–13.11safer1.88–6.593.14–7.495.01–14.08
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7214.0626.79safe9.02–16.4310.68–17.4419.70–33.87safer7.99–17.469.75–18.3717.74–35.83
Shots in box
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.483.689.17safe2.97–8.001.38–5.984.35–13.98safer2.10–8.860.58–6.782.69–15.64
Blocked shots
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.423.06safe0.06–3.230.00–2.830.06–6.06safer0.00–3.770.00–3.320.00–7.08
Corners
50%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.654.138.78safe2.45–6.862.15–6.104.59–12.96safer1.85–7.451.61–6.643.46–14.09
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction53.5746.35safe47.25–59.8940.04–52.67safer45.65–61.4838.44–54.27
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction465349813safe399–530284–413683–943safer382–548267–431648–978
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction80.1270.59safe75.90–84.3366.08–75.09safer74.60–85.6364.75–76.42
Fouls
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction8.1610.5718.73safe5.30–11.017.63–13.5212.93–24.53safer4.41–11.906.71–14.4411.13–26.34
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.053.89safe0.62–3.040.89–3.221.51–6.26safer0.28–3.390.56–3.550.84–6.93
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.204.01safe0.75–2.861.08–3.321.83–6.18safer0.47–3.130.79–3.611.27–6.74
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.106.09safe1.58–4.411.54–4.653.12–9.06safer1.19–4.801.11–5.082.30–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.48 0.29–2.74 | 5.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 0.00 | 2.69 0.86–4.51 0.36–5.02 | 5.00 | 45% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.23 2.38–6.09 1.88–6.59 | — | 5.31 3.60–7.02 3.14–7.49 | — | 9.54 5.98–13.11 5.01–14.08 | — | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 12.72 9.02–16.43 7.99–17.46 | — | 14.06 10.68–17.44 9.75–18.37 | — | 26.79 19.70–33.87 17.74–35.83 | — | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 5.48 2.97–8.00 2.10–8.86 | — | 3.68 1.38–5.98 0.58–6.78 | — | 9.17 4.35–13.98 2.69–15.64 | — | 67% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 1.65 0.06–3.23 0.00–3.77 | — | 1.42 0.00–2.83 0.00–3.32 | — | 3.06 0.06–6.06 0.00–7.08 | — | 43% 24% 33% |
| Corners | 4.65 2.45–6.86 1.85–7.45 | — | 4.13 2.15–6.10 1.61–6.64 | — | 8.78 4.59–12.96 3.46–14.09 | — | 50% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 53.57 47.25–59.89 45.65–61.48 | — | 46.35 40.04–52.67 38.44–54.27 | — | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 465 399–530 382–548 | — | 349 284–413 267–431 | — | 813 683–943 648–978 | — | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.12 75.90–84.33 74.60–85.63 | — | 70.59 66.08–75.09 64.75–76.42 | — | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 8.16 5.30–11.01 4.41–11.90 | — | 10.57 7.63–13.52 6.71–14.44 | — | 18.73 12.93–24.53 11.13–26.34 | — | 25% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.62–3.04 0.28–3.39 | — | 2.05 0.89–3.22 0.56–3.55 | — | 3.89 1.51–6.26 0.84–6.93 | — | 35% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.86 0.47–3.13 | — | 2.20 1.08–3.32 0.79–3.61 | — | 4.01 1.83–6.18 1.27–6.74 | — | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.58–4.41 1.19–4.80 | — | 3.10 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.08 | — | 6.09 3.12–9.06 2.30–9.88 | — | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.