Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
29%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.472.61safe0.17–2.100.62–2.330.79–4.43safer0.00–2.360.39–2.560.31–4.91
Shots on target
35%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.044.718.76safe2.18–5.912.97–6.455.15–12.36safer1.69–6.402.50–6.924.20–13.32
Total shots
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction9.3913.2222.60safe5.46–13.319.65–16.7815.11–30.09safer4.37–14.408.69–17.7413.06–32.14
Shots in box
24%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction6.909.2816.18safe3.96–9.846.60–11.9610.56–21.80safer3.13–10.675.86–12.708.99–23.37
Blocked shots
41%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.755.49safe0.86–4.631.09–4.401.96–9.03safer0.32–5.170.60–4.890.92–10.07
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.674.979.64safe2.45–6.882.97–6.975.43–13.85safer1.88–7.462.44–7.514.32–14.96
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.3754.73safe39.58–53.1647.95–61.52safer37.91–54.8346.27–63.19
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction357429786safe290–424362–495652–919safer272–442345–513616–955
Pass accuracy %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction66.1572.58safe62.13–70.1868.25–76.90safer60.83–71.4866.94–78.21
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0212.7826.80safe11.18–16.869.83–15.7221.01–32.58safer10.43–17.619.08–16.4719.51–34.08
Offsides
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.194.37safe1.02–3.341.10–3.282.12–6.63safer0.72–3.650.81–3.571.53–7.22
Yellow cards
55%
20%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.423.62safe1.15–3.240.29–2.551.44–5.80safer0.88–3.510.00–2.840.88–6.35
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.100.25safe0.00–0.310.00–0.290.00–0.60safer0.00–0.460.00–0.420.00–0.88
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.103.006.10safe1.66–4.531.45–4.563.11–9.09safer1.27–4.921.02–4.982.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.36 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.56 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 29% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.04 2.18–5.91 1.69–6.40 | 4.71 2.97–6.45 2.50–6.92 | 8.76 5.15–12.36 4.20–13.32 | 35% 13% 52% |
| Total shots | 9.39 5.46–13.31 4.37–14.40 | 13.22 9.65–16.78 8.69–17.74 | 22.60 15.11–30.09 13.06–32.14 | 18% 76% |
| Shots in box | 6.90 3.96–9.84 3.13–10.67 | 9.28 6.60–11.96 5.86–12.70 | 16.18 10.56–21.80 8.99–23.37 | 24% 68% |
| Blocked shots | 2.75 0.86–4.63 0.32–5.17 | 2.75 1.09–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 5.49 1.96–9.03 0.92–10.07 | 41% 17% 41% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.45–6.88 1.88–7.46 | 4.97 2.97–6.97 2.44–7.51 | 9.64 5.43–13.85 4.32–14.96 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 46.37 39.58–53.16 37.91–54.83 | 54.73 47.95–61.52 46.27–63.19 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 357 290–424 272–442 | 429 362–495 345–513 | 786 652–919 616–955 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.15 62.13–70.18 60.83–71.48 | 72.58 68.25–76.90 66.94–78.21 | — | 19% 78% |
| Fouls | 14.02 11.18–16.86 10.43–17.61 | 12.78 9.83–15.72 9.08–16.47 | 26.80 21.01–32.58 19.51–34.08 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.72–3.65 | 2.19 1.10–3.28 0.81–3.57 | 4.37 2.12–6.63 1.53–7.22 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.24 0.88–3.51 | 1.42 0.29–2.55 0.00–2.84 | 3.62 1.44–5.80 0.88–6.35 | 55% 20% 25% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.10 1.66–4.53 1.27–4.92 | 3.00 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.98 | 6.10 3.11–9.09 2.29–9.90 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.