Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
38%
28%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.122.32safe0.24–2.170.26–1.980.50–4.15safer0.00–2.430.02–2.230.00–4.65actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.063.217.27safe2.20–5.911.51–4.923.71–10.84safer1.70–6.411.04–5.392.74–11.80
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5810.2621.84safe7.88–15.286.88–13.6414.76–28.92safer6.85–16.315.95–14.5712.80–30.88
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.092.257.34safe2.57–7.610.00–4.552.53–12.16safer1.71–8.470.00–5.350.86–13.82
Blocked shots
57%
22%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.052.93safe0.30–3.470.00–2.460.00–5.93safer0.00–4.000.00–2.950.00–6.95
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.124.079.19safe2.91–7.332.09–6.055.01–13.38safer2.32–7.921.56–6.593.88–14.51
Possession %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction51.2347.00safe44.91–57.5540.68–53.32safer43.32–59.1439.09–54.92
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction407363770safe342–472298–427640–900safer324–490281–445605–935
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction71.8669.51safe67.65–76.0865.00–74.01safer66.35–77.3863.67–75.34
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1711.5222.69safe8.31–14.028.58–14.4716.88–28.49safer7.42–14.917.66–15.3915.08–30.29
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.713.67safe0.75–3.160.55–2.881.30–6.04safer0.40–3.510.22–3.210.62–6.72
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.154.26safe1.06–3.171.03–3.272.09–6.44safer0.78–3.440.74–3.561.53–7.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.080.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.270.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.86
GK saves
36%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.594.89safe0.88–3.711.04–4.151.92–7.86safer0.50–4.100.61–4.581.10–8.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.24–2.17 0.00–2.43 | 1.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 1.00 | 2.32 0.50–4.15 0.00–4.65 | 2.00 | 38% 28% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.06 2.20–5.91 1.70–6.41 | — | 3.21 1.51–4.92 1.04–5.39 | — | 7.27 3.71–10.84 2.74–11.80 | — | 55% 14% 31% |
| Total shots | 11.58 7.88–15.28 6.85–16.31 | — | 10.26 6.88–13.64 5.95–14.57 | — | 21.84 14.76–28.92 12.80–30.88 | — | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 5.09 2.57–7.61 1.71–8.47 | — | 2.25 0.00–4.55 0.00–5.35 | — | 7.34 2.53–12.16 0.86–13.82 | — | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 1.88 0.30–3.47 0.00–4.00 | — | 1.05 0.00–2.46 0.00–2.95 | — | 2.93 0.00–5.93 0.00–6.95 | — | 57% 22% 21% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.91–7.33 2.32–7.92 | — | 4.07 2.09–6.05 1.56–6.59 | — | 9.19 5.01–13.38 3.88–14.51 | — | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.23 44.91–57.55 43.32–59.14 | — | 47.00 40.68–53.32 39.09–54.92 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Passes | 407 342–472 324–490 | — | 363 298–427 281–445 | — | 770 640–900 605–935 | — | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.86 67.65–76.08 66.35–77.38 | — | 69.51 65.00–74.01 63.67–75.34 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.17 8.31–14.02 7.42–14.91 | — | 11.52 8.58–14.47 7.66–15.39 | — | 22.69 16.88–28.49 15.08–30.29 | — | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.75–3.16 0.40–3.51 | — | 1.71 0.55–2.88 0.22–3.21 | — | 3.67 1.30–6.04 0.62–6.72 | — | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.17 0.78–3.44 | — | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | — | 4.26 2.09–6.44 1.53–7.00 | — | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | — | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.88–3.71 0.50–4.10 | — | 2.59 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.58 | — | 4.89 1.92–7.86 1.10–8.68 | — | 36% 18% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+