Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.232.82safe0.63–2.550.37–2.091.00–4.64safer0.37–2.810.12–2.340.49–5.15actual8.000.008.00
Shots on target
31%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.974.918.88safe2.11–5.823.21–6.625.32–12.44safer1.61–6.322.74–7.094.35–13.41
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2713.6827.95safe10.57–17.9710.30–17.0620.87–35.03safer9.53–19.009.37–17.9918.91–36.99
Shots in box
24%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.226.0110.24safe1.71–6.743.71–8.315.42–15.05safer0.84–7.602.92–9.113.76–16.71
Blocked shots
27%
18%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.834.81safe0.40–3.571.41–4.241.81–7.81safer0.00–4.100.93–4.730.79–8.83
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.823.799.61safe3.61–8.021.81–5.775.42–13.79safer3.02–8.621.27–6.314.29–14.92
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction49.1551.21safe42.83–55.4744.90–57.53safer41.23–57.0643.30–59.13
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction381382763safe316–447317–446633–893safer299–464299–464598–928
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction73.3773.45safe69.15–77.5868.95–77.96safer67.85–78.8867.62–79.29
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9410.6121.55safe8.08–13.807.66–13.5515.75–27.35safer7.20–14.686.74–14.4713.94–29.15
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.733.31safe0.37–2.790.56–2.890.93–5.68safer0.03–3.130.23–3.220.26–6.36
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.083.99safe0.85–2.960.96–3.201.81–6.16safer0.57–3.230.67–3.491.25–6.72
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
35%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.925.47safe1.13–3.961.36–4.472.50–8.44safer0.74–4.350.93–4.901.68–9.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.55 0.37–2.81 | 8.00 | 1.23 0.37–2.09 0.12–2.34 | 0.00 | 2.82 1.00–4.64 0.49–5.15 | 8.00 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 3.97 2.11–5.82 1.61–6.32 | — | 4.91 3.21–6.62 2.74–7.09 | — | 8.88 5.32–12.44 4.35–13.41 | — | 31% 56% |
| Total shots | 14.27 10.57–17.97 9.53–19.00 | — | 13.68 10.30–17.06 9.37–17.99 | — | 27.95 20.87–35.03 18.91–36.99 | — | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 4.22 1.71–6.74 0.84–7.60 | — | 6.01 3.71–8.31 2.92–9.11 | — | 10.24 5.42–15.05 3.76–16.71 | — | 24% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 1.98 0.40–3.57 0.00–4.10 | — | 2.83 1.41–4.24 0.93–4.73 | — | 4.81 1.81–7.81 0.79–8.83 | — | 27% 18% 56% |
| Corners | 5.82 3.61–8.02 3.02–8.62 | — | 3.79 1.81–5.77 1.27–6.31 | — | 9.61 5.42–13.79 4.29–14.92 | — | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 49.15 42.83–55.47 41.23–57.06 | — | 51.21 44.90–57.53 43.30–59.13 | — | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 381 316–447 299–464 | — | 382 317–446 299–464 | — | 763 633–893 598–928 | — | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.37 69.15–77.58 67.85–78.88 | — | 73.45 68.95–77.96 67.62–79.29 | — | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 10.94 8.08–13.80 7.20–14.68 | — | 10.61 7.66–13.55 6.74–14.47 | — | 21.55 15.75–27.35 13.94–29.15 | — | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.37–2.79 0.03–3.13 | — | 1.73 0.56–2.89 0.23–3.22 | — | 3.31 0.93–5.68 0.26–6.36 | — | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.96 0.57–3.23 | — | 2.08 0.96–3.20 0.67–3.49 | — | 3.99 1.81–6.16 1.25–6.72 | — | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.13–3.96 0.74–4.35 | — | 2.92 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | — | 5.47 2.50–8.44 1.68–9.26 | — | 35% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.