Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.572.66safe0.13–2.060.71–2.420.84–4.48safer0.00–2.310.48–2.650.36–4.96
Shots on target
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.838.88safe2.19–5.923.09–6.575.28–12.49safer1.70–6.402.62–7.044.32–13.44
Total shots
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2812.6922.98safe6.36–14.219.13–16.2515.49–30.46safer5.27–15.308.17–17.2113.44–32.51
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.539.2616.79safe4.59–10.476.58–11.9411.16–22.41safer3.76–11.305.84–12.689.60–23.98
Blocked shots
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.923.536.45safe1.04–4.801.87–5.182.91–9.98safer0.50–5.351.38–5.671.88–11.02
Corners
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.505.359.85safe2.28–6.713.35–7.355.63–14.06safer1.71–7.282.82–7.884.52–15.17
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction44.7957.22safe38.00–51.5850.44–64.00safer36.33–53.2548.76–65.68
Passes
19%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction352455806safe284–419388–521672–940safer266–437371–539637–975
Pass accuracy %
24%
71%
homeawayprediction70.2675.16safe66.23–74.2970.83–79.48safer64.94–75.5869.52–80.79
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8312.9526.78safe10.99–16.6710.00–15.8920.99–32.56safer10.24–17.429.25–16.6419.49–34.06
Offsides
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.234.35safe0.97–3.291.13–3.322.10–6.61safer0.67–3.590.84–3.611.51–7.20
Yellow cards
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.141.433.57safe1.09–3.190.30–2.551.39–5.75safer0.83–3.460.01–2.850.83–6.30
Red cards
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.100.26safe0.00–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.61safer0.00–0.470.00–0.420.00–0.89
GK saves
45%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.243.026.25safe1.80–4.671.46–4.573.26–9.24safer1.41–5.061.03–5.002.45–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.13–2.06 0.00–2.31 | 1.57 0.71–2.42 0.48–2.65 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.36–4.96 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.92 1.70–6.40 | 4.83 3.09–6.57 2.62–7.04 | 8.88 5.28–12.49 4.32–13.44 | 33% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 10.28 6.36–14.21 5.27–15.30 | 12.69 9.13–16.25 8.17–17.21 | 22.98 15.49–30.46 13.44–32.51 | 27% 65% |
| Shots in box | 7.53 4.59–10.47 3.76–11.30 | 9.26 6.58–11.94 5.84–12.68 | 16.79 11.16–22.41 9.60–23.98 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.04–4.80 0.50–5.35 | 3.53 1.87–5.18 1.38–5.67 | 6.45 2.91–9.98 1.88–11.02 | 33% 16% 51% |
| Corners | 4.50 2.28–6.71 1.71–7.28 | 5.35 3.35–7.35 2.82–7.88 | 9.85 5.63–14.06 4.52–15.17 | 33% 54% |
| Possession % | 44.79 38.00–51.58 36.33–53.25 | 57.22 50.44–64.00 48.76–65.68 | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 352 284–419 266–437 | 455 388–521 371–539 | 806 672–940 637–975 | 19% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.26 66.23–74.29 64.94–75.58 | 75.16 70.83–79.48 69.52–80.79 | — | 24% 71% |
| Fouls | 13.83 10.99–16.67 10.24–17.42 | 12.95 10.00–15.89 9.25–16.64 | 26.78 20.99–32.56 19.49–34.06 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.13 0.97–3.29 0.67–3.59 | 2.23 1.13–3.32 0.84–3.61 | 4.35 2.10–6.61 1.51–7.20 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.19 0.83–3.46 | 1.43 0.30–2.55 0.01–2.85 | 3.57 1.39–5.75 0.83–6.30 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 13% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.24 1.80–4.67 1.41–5.06 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.03–5.00 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.45–10.06 | 45% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+