Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.132.48safe0.39–2.310.27–1.990.66–4.30safer0.13–2.570.03–2.240.15–4.81actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.018.15safe2.28–6.002.31–5.724.59–11.72safer1.78–6.491.84–6.193.62–12.68
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0610.0321.09safe7.35–14.766.65–13.4114.00–28.17safer6.32–15.795.72–14.3412.04–30.13
Shots in box
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.217.09safe1.36–6.390.91–5.512.27–11.90safer0.50–7.260.11–6.310.61–13.57
Blocked shots
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.052.33safe0.00–2.860.00–2.460.00–5.33safer0.00–3.400.00–2.950.00–6.35
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.219.38safe2.97–7.382.23–6.185.20–13.57safer2.38–7.981.69–6.724.07–14.70
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction53.6845.74safe47.36–59.9939.42–52.06safer45.76–61.5937.83–53.66
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction462358819safe396–527293–422690–949safer379–545276–440654–985
Pass accuracy %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction79.9673.30safe75.74–84.1768.80–77.81safer74.44–85.4767.47–79.14
Fouls
78%
homeawaytotalprediction5.312.657.97safe2.46–8.170.00–5.602.16–13.77safer1.57–9.060.00–6.510.36–15.57
Offsides
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.883.37safe0.29–2.700.71–3.041.00–5.74safer0.00–3.050.38–3.370.32–6.42
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.214.04safe0.78–2.891.09–3.331.87–6.22safer0.51–3.160.80–3.621.31–6.78
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.344.65safe0.89–3.720.79–3.901.68–7.62safer0.50–4.110.36–4.330.86–8.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.31 0.13–2.57 | 1.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.99 0.03–2.24 | 0.00 | 2.48 0.66–4.30 0.15–4.81 | 1.00 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–6.00 1.78–6.49 | — | 4.01 2.31–5.72 1.84–6.19 | — | 8.15 4.59–11.72 3.62–12.68 | — | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 11.06 7.35–14.76 6.32–15.79 | — | 10.03 6.65–13.41 5.72–14.34 | — | 21.09 14.00–28.17 12.04–30.13 | — | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 3.88 1.36–6.39 0.50–7.26 | — | 3.21 0.91–5.51 0.11–6.31 | — | 7.09 2.27–11.90 0.61–13.57 | — | 52% 15% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 1.28 0.00–2.86 0.00–3.40 | — | 1.05 0.00–2.46 0.00–2.95 | — | 2.33 0.00–5.33 0.00–6.35 | — | 42% 28% 30% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.38 2.38–7.98 | — | 4.21 2.23–6.18 1.69–6.72 | — | 9.38 5.20–13.57 4.07–14.70 | — | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 53.68 47.36–59.99 45.76–61.59 | — | 45.74 39.42–52.06 37.83–53.66 | — | — | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 462 396–527 379–545 | — | 358 293–422 276–440 | — | 819 690–949 654–985 | — | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.96 75.74–84.17 74.44–85.47 | — | 73.30 68.80–77.81 67.47–79.14 | — | — | — | 78% 19% |
| Fouls | 5.31 2.46–8.17 1.57–9.06 | — | 2.65 0.00–5.60 0.00–6.51 | — | 7.97 2.16–13.77 0.36–15.57 | — | 78% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.29–2.70 0.00–3.05 | — | 1.88 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | — | 3.37 1.00–5.74 0.32–6.42 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.16 | — | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | — | 4.04 1.87–6.22 1.31–6.78 | — | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.89–3.72 0.50–4.11 | — | 2.34 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | — | 4.65 1.68–7.62 0.86–8.44 | — | 40% 19% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+