Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·
Copa del Rey·1/128-finals·Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimateGoals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.182.51safe0.36–2.300.32–2.030.68–4.33safer0.11–2.550.10–2.260.21–4.81
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.248.69safe2.59–6.312.49–5.985.08–12.29safer2.10–6.802.03–6.454.13–13.25
Total shots
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1910.6621.84safe7.26–15.117.09–14.2214.36–29.33safer6.17–16.206.13–15.1812.31–31.38
Shots in box
47%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction7.587.3214.91safe4.64–10.524.64–10.019.28–20.53safer3.81–11.353.91–10.747.72–22.10
Blocked shots
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.795.66safe0.98–4.751.14–4.442.12–9.19safer0.44–5.290.64–4.931.08–10.23
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.214.509.71safe3.00–7.432.50–6.505.50–13.93safer2.42–8.001.97–7.034.39–15.03
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.0450.16safe43.25–56.8343.38–56.95safer41.58–58.5041.71–58.62
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction418403822safe351–486337–470688–955safer333–504319–487652–991
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction75.0273.28safe70.99–79.0568.96–77.61safer69.70–80.3467.65–78.92
Fouls
47%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8713.8227.70safe11.04–16.7110.88–16.7721.91–33.48safer10.28–17.4710.13–17.5220.41–34.98
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.943.89safe0.79–3.120.85–3.031.64–6.15safer0.49–3.420.56–3.321.05–6.74
Yellow cards
37%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.244.29safe1.00–3.101.11–3.372.11–6.46safer0.73–3.360.82–3.661.55–7.02
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.86
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.186.02safe1.40–4.271.62–4.743.02–9.01safer1.01–4.661.20–5.162.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.18 0.32–2.03 0.10–2.26 | 2.51 0.68–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.31 2.10–6.80 | 4.24 2.49–5.98 2.03–6.45 | 8.69 5.08–12.29 4.13–13.25 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 11.19 7.26–15.11 6.17–16.20 | 10.66 7.09–14.22 6.13–15.18 | 21.84 14.36–29.33 12.31–31.38 | 50% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.58 4.64–10.52 3.81–11.35 | 7.32 4.64–10.01 3.91–10.74 | 14.91 9.28–20.53 7.72–22.10 | 47% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 2.87 0.98–4.75 0.44–5.29 | 2.79 1.14–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 5.66 2.12–9.19 1.08–10.23 | 43% 17% 40% |
| Corners | 5.21 3.00–7.43 2.42–8.00 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.97–7.03 | 9.71 5.50–13.93 4.39–15.03 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 50.04 43.25–56.83 41.58–58.50 | 50.16 43.38–56.95 41.71–58.62 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 418 351–486 333–504 | 403 337–470 319–487 | 822 688–955 652–991 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.02 70.99–79.05 69.70–80.34 | 73.28 68.96–77.61 67.65–78.92 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 13.87 11.04–16.71 10.28–17.47 | 13.82 10.88–16.77 10.13–17.52 | 27.70 21.91–33.48 20.41–34.98 | 47% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.79–3.12 0.49–3.42 | 1.94 0.85–3.03 0.56–3.32 | 3.89 1.64–6.15 1.05–6.74 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.10 0.73–3.36 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.29 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 37% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.18 1.62–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 6.02 3.02–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+