Premiership·Regular Season - 3·
Premiership·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
24%
24%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.742.85safe0.15–2.070.88–2.601.03–4.67safer0.00–2.330.63–2.840.52–5.18actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.965.028.98safe2.10–5.823.31–6.725.41–12.54safer1.60–6.322.84–7.194.45–13.51actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7814.7726.55safe8.08–15.4811.39–18.1519.47–33.63safer7.05–16.5110.46–19.0817.51–35.59actual13.009.0022.00
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.589.6917.27safe5.07–10.107.39–11.9912.45–22.09safer4.20–10.966.59–12.7910.79–23.75actual10.006.0016.00
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.564.037.59safe1.97–5.142.61–5.444.59–10.59safer1.44–5.682.13–5.933.57–11.61actual3.003.006.00
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.565.7510.31safe2.35–6.773.77–7.736.13–14.49safer1.76–7.363.24–8.275.00–15.63actual3.004.007.00
Possession %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction46.6853.81safe40.37–53.0047.49–60.13safer38.77–54.6045.89–61.72actual42.0058.00
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction409466875safe343–474402–531745–1005safer326–492384–548710–1040actual346489835
Pass accuracy %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction68.4370.26safe64.22–72.6565.75–74.77safer62.91–73.9564.42–76.10
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3412.9625.30safe9.48–15.2010.01–15.9019.49–31.10safer8.60–16.089.10–16.8217.69–32.90actual15.0013.0028.00
Offsides
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.903.43safe0.32–2.740.73–3.061.05–5.80safer0.00–3.080.40–3.390.38–6.48actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
44%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.234.66safe1.37–3.481.11–3.352.48–6.84safer1.10–3.760.82–3.641.92–7.40actual4.003.007.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.090.24safe0.00–0.300.00–0.280.00–0.58safer0.00–0.460.00–0.430.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
52%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.505.64safe1.73–4.560.94–4.052.67–8.61safer1.34–4.940.51–4.481.85–9.43actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.15–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 2.00 | 1.74 0.88–2.60 0.63–2.84 | 1.00 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.52–5.18 | 3.00 | 24% 24% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.96 2.10–5.82 1.60–6.32 | 4.00 | 5.02 3.31–6.72 2.84–7.19 | 4.00 | 8.98 5.41–12.54 4.45–13.51 | 8.00 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.78 8.08–15.48 7.05–16.51 | 13.00 | 14.77 11.39–18.15 10.46–19.08 | 9.00 | 26.55 19.47–33.63 17.51–35.59 | 22.00 | 25% 69% |
| Shots in box | 7.58 5.07–10.10 4.20–10.96 | 10.00 | 9.69 7.39–11.99 6.59–12.79 | 6.00 | 17.27 12.45–22.09 10.79–23.75 | 16.00 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.97–5.14 1.44–5.68 | 3.00 | 4.03 2.61–5.44 2.13–5.93 | 3.00 | 7.59 4.59–10.59 3.57–11.61 | 6.00 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 4.56 2.35–6.77 1.76–7.36 | 3.00 | 5.75 3.77–7.73 3.24–8.27 | 4.00 | 10.31 6.13–14.49 5.00–15.63 | 7.00 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 46.68 40.37–53.00 38.77–54.60 | 42.00 | 53.81 47.49–60.13 45.89–61.72 | 58.00 | — | — | 30% 65% |
| Passes | 409 343–474 326–492 | 346 | 466 402–531 384–548 | 489 | 875 745–1005 710–1040 | 835 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.43 64.22–72.65 62.91–73.95 | — | 70.26 65.75–74.77 64.42–76.10 | — | — | — | 39% 57% |
| Fouls | 12.34 9.48–15.20 8.60–16.08 | 15.00 | 12.96 10.01–15.90 9.10–16.82 | 13.00 | 25.30 19.49–31.10 17.69–32.90 | 28.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.32–2.74 0.00–3.08 | 0.00 | 1.90 0.73–3.06 0.40–3.39 | 3.00 | 3.43 1.05–5.80 0.38–6.48 | 3.00 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.37–3.48 1.10–3.76 | 4.00 | 2.23 1.11–3.35 0.82–3.64 | 3.00 | 4.66 2.48–6.84 1.92–7.40 | 7.00 | 44% 19% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.73–4.56 1.34–4.94 | 3.00 | 2.50 0.94–4.05 0.51–4.48 | 2.00 | 5.64 2.67–8.61 1.85–9.43 | 5.00 | 52% 17% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+