Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
60%
22%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.840.872.71safe0.87–2.800.01–1.730.89–4.53safer0.61–3.060.00–1.980.38–5.04actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.902.998.89safe4.05–7.761.28–4.695.33–12.45safer3.55–8.260.81–5.164.36–13.42actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.459.2926.74safe13.74–21.155.92–12.6719.66–33.82safer12.71–22.184.98–13.6017.70–35.78actual18.0010.0028.00
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.405.8217.22safe8.89–13.923.52–8.1212.40–22.04safer8.02–14.782.72–8.9110.74–23.70actual14.008.0022.00
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.722.817.53safe3.14–6.301.40–4.234.53–10.53safer2.60–6.840.91–4.713.51–11.55actual5.002.007.00
Corners
72%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.604.2210.83safe4.40–8.812.25–6.206.64–15.01safer3.80–9.401.71–6.745.51–16.14actual12.000.0012.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.0641.56safe52.75–65.3835.24–47.88safer51.15–66.9833.64–49.48actual54.0046.00
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction520393914safe455–586329–458784–1043safer437–603311–475748–1079actual517454971
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction79.5473.76safe75.32–83.7569.25–78.27safer74.02–85.0567.92–79.60
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5112.0223.53safe8.65–14.379.07–14.9617.72–29.33safer7.77–15.258.15–15.8815.92–31.13actual13.0013.0026.00
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.643.67safe0.82–3.240.48–2.811.30–6.04safer0.47–3.580.15–3.140.62–6.72actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.494.22safe0.68–2.791.37–3.612.04–6.39safer0.40–3.061.07–3.901.48–6.96actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
17%
13%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.063.795.86safe0.65–3.482.24–5.352.89–8.82safer0.26–3.871.81–5.782.07–9.65actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.87–2.80 0.61–3.06 | 1.00 | 0.87 0.01–1.73 0.00–1.98 | 0.00 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.38–5.04 | 1.00 | 60% 22% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.90 4.05–7.76 3.55–8.26 | 6.00 | 2.99 1.28–4.69 0.81–5.16 | 2.00 | 8.89 5.33–12.45 4.36–13.42 | 8.00 | 79% |
| Total shots | 17.45 13.74–21.15 12.71–22.18 | 18.00 | 9.29 5.92–12.67 4.98–13.60 | 10.00 | 26.74 19.66–33.82 17.70–35.78 | 28.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 11.40 8.89–13.92 8.02–14.78 | 14.00 | 5.82 3.52–8.12 2.72–8.91 | 8.00 | 17.22 12.40–22.04 10.74–23.70 | 22.00 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.72 3.14–6.30 2.60–6.84 | 5.00 | 2.81 1.40–4.23 0.91–4.71 | 2.00 | 7.53 4.53–10.53 3.51–11.55 | 7.00 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.60 4.40–8.81 3.80–9.40 | 12.00 | 4.22 2.25–6.20 1.71–6.74 | 0.00 | 10.83 6.64–15.01 5.51–16.14 | 12.00 | 72% 19% |
| Possession % | 59.06 52.75–65.38 51.15–66.98 | 54.00 | 41.56 35.24–47.88 33.64–49.48 | 46.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 520 455–586 437–603 | 517 | 393 329–458 311–475 | 454 | 914 784–1043 748–1079 | 971 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.54 75.32–83.75 74.02–85.05 | — | 73.76 69.25–78.27 67.92–79.60 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.65–14.37 7.77–15.25 | 13.00 | 12.02 9.07–14.96 8.15–15.88 | 13.00 | 23.53 17.72–29.33 15.92–31.13 | 26.00 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.82–3.24 0.47–3.58 | 0.00 | 1.64 0.48–2.81 0.15–3.14 | 1.00 | 3.67 1.30–6.04 0.62–6.72 | 1.00 | 47% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.79 0.40–3.06 | 1.00 | 2.49 1.37–3.61 1.07–3.90 | 1.00 | 4.22 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.96 | 2.00 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.06 0.65–3.48 0.26–3.87 | 2.00 | 3.79 2.24–5.35 1.81–5.78 | 6.00 | 5.86 2.89–8.82 2.07–9.65 | 8.00 | 17% 13% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+