Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.812.82safe0.04–1.980.96–2.661.00–4.64safer0.00–2.230.73–2.890.52–5.12
Shots on target
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.425.689.09safe1.55–5.283.93–7.425.49–12.70safer1.06–5.773.47–7.884.53–13.65
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6915.7227.41safe7.76–15.6112.16–19.2819.92–34.89safer6.67–16.7011.20–20.2417.87–36.94
Shots in box
18%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction7.2810.5517.82safe4.33–10.227.87–13.2312.20–23.45safer3.50–11.057.13–13.9610.63–25.01
Blocked shots
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.484.958.43safe1.60–5.373.29–6.604.89–11.96safer1.06–5.912.80–7.093.86–13.00
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.755.5410.29safe2.54–6.963.54–7.546.08–14.50safer1.96–7.543.01–8.074.97–15.61
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction46.8253.52safe40.03–53.6146.73–60.30safer38.36–55.2845.06–61.97
Passes
32%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction410465874safe343–477398–531741–1008safer325–495381–549705–1044
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction63.9571.13safe59.92–67.9866.81–75.46safer58.63–69.2765.50–76.77
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7813.4226.20safe9.94–15.6110.48–16.3620.41–31.98safer9.18–16.379.73–17.1118.91–33.48
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.923.70safe0.61–2.930.83–3.021.45–5.95safer0.31–3.240.54–3.310.86–6.54
Yellow cards
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.291.864.15safe1.24–3.340.74–2.991.98–6.33safer0.97–3.610.44–3.281.42–6.89
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.19safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.400.00–0.82
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.702.566.26safe2.26–5.131.01–4.123.27–9.25safer1.87–5.520.58–4.542.46–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.01 0.04–1.98 0.00–2.23 | 1.81 0.96–2.66 0.73–2.89 | 2.82 1.00–4.64 0.52–5.12 | 21% 23% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.42 1.55–5.28 1.06–5.77 | 5.68 3.93–7.42 3.47–7.88 | 9.09 5.49–12.70 4.53–13.65 | 18% 72% |
| Total shots | 11.69 7.76–15.61 6.67–16.70 | 15.72 12.16–19.28 11.20–20.24 | 27.41 19.92–34.89 17.87–36.94 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 7.28 4.33–10.22 3.50–11.05 | 10.55 7.87–13.23 7.13–13.96 | 17.82 12.20–23.45 10.63–25.01 | 18% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.60–5.37 1.06–5.91 | 4.95 3.29–6.60 2.80–7.09 | 8.43 4.89–11.96 3.86–13.00 | 25% 63% |
| Corners | 4.75 2.54–6.96 1.96–7.54 | 5.54 3.54–7.54 3.01–8.07 | 10.29 6.08–14.50 4.97–15.61 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 46.82 40.03–53.61 38.36–55.28 | 53.52 46.73–60.30 45.06–61.97 | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 410 343–477 325–495 | 465 398–531 381–549 | 874 741–1008 705–1044 | 32% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.95 59.92–67.98 58.63–69.27 | 71.13 66.81–75.46 65.50–76.77 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 12.78 9.94–15.61 9.18–16.37 | 13.42 10.48–16.36 9.73–17.11 | 26.20 20.41–31.98 18.91–33.48 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.24 | 1.92 0.83–3.02 0.54–3.31 | 3.70 1.45–5.95 0.86–6.54 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 1.24–3.34 0.97–3.61 | 1.86 0.74–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 4.15 1.98–6.33 1.42–6.89 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.70 2.26–5.13 1.87–5.52 | 2.56 1.01–4.12 0.58–4.54 | 6.26 3.27–9.25 2.46–10.06 | 60% 15% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.