Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
62%
22%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.900.862.76safe0.94–2.870.00–1.720.94–4.58safer0.68–3.130.00–1.960.43–5.09actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.733.689.41safe3.87–7.581.97–5.395.84–12.97safer3.37–8.081.50–5.864.88–13.94actual2.002.004.00
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3310.7226.05safe11.63–19.037.34–14.0918.96–33.13safer10.60–20.066.41–15.0317.00–35.09actual12.009.0021.00
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.406.6617.06safe7.88–12.924.36–8.9612.25–21.88safer7.02–13.783.57–9.7610.58–23.54actual8.003.0011.00
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.522.847.36safe2.94–6.111.42–4.254.36–10.36safer2.41–6.640.93–4.743.34–11.38actual7.001.008.00
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.984.1710.16safe3.78–8.192.20–6.155.97–14.34safer3.18–8.781.66–6.694.84–15.47actual6.009.0015.00
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.8044.90safe49.48–62.1238.58–51.22safer47.88–63.7136.99–52.82actual52.0048.00
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction478385864safe413–544321–450734–994safer395–561303–467699–1029actual449422871
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction71.2565.37safe67.03–75.4660.87–69.88safer65.73–76.7659.53–71.21
Fouls
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0412.0823.12safe8.18–13.909.13–15.0217.32–28.92safer7.30–14.788.22–15.9415.51–30.72actual12.0011.0023.00
Offsides
37%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.763.41safe0.44–2.860.59–2.921.03–5.78safer0.10–3.200.26–3.250.36–6.45actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.143.95safe0.75–2.861.02–3.261.77–6.13safer0.48–3.130.73–3.551.21–6.69actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
28%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.193.035.22safe0.78–3.611.48–4.592.26–8.19safer0.39–4.001.05–5.021.43–9.01actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 0.94–2.87 0.68–3.13 | 1.00 | 0.86 0.00–1.72 0.00–1.96 | 1.00 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.43–5.09 | 2.00 | 62% 22% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.73 3.87–7.58 3.37–8.08 | 2.00 | 3.68 1.97–5.39 1.50–5.86 | 2.00 | 9.41 5.84–12.97 4.88–13.94 | 4.00 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 15.33 11.63–19.03 10.60–20.06 | 12.00 | 10.72 7.34–14.09 6.41–15.03 | 9.00 | 26.05 18.96–33.13 17.00–35.09 | 21.00 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.40 7.88–12.92 7.02–13.78 | 8.00 | 6.66 4.36–8.96 3.57–9.76 | 3.00 | 17.06 12.25–21.88 10.58–23.54 | 11.00 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.52 2.94–6.11 2.41–6.64 | 7.00 | 2.84 1.42–4.25 0.93–4.74 | 1.00 | 7.36 4.36–10.36 3.34–11.38 | 8.00 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 5.98 3.78–8.19 3.18–8.78 | 6.00 | 4.17 2.20–6.15 1.66–6.69 | 9.00 | 10.16 5.97–14.34 4.84–15.47 | 15.00 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 55.80 49.48–62.12 47.88–63.71 | 52.00 | 44.90 38.58–51.22 36.99–52.82 | 48.00 | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 478 413–544 395–561 | 449 | 385 321–450 303–467 | 422 | 864 734–994 699–1029 | 871 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.25 67.03–75.46 65.73–76.76 | — | 65.37 60.87–69.88 59.53–71.21 | — | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 11.04 8.18–13.90 7.30–14.78 | 12.00 | 12.08 9.13–15.02 8.22–15.94 | 11.00 | 23.12 17.32–28.92 15.51–30.72 | 23.00 | 37% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.44–2.86 0.10–3.20 | 2.00 | 1.76 0.59–2.92 0.26–3.25 | 3.00 | 3.41 1.03–5.78 0.36–6.45 | 5.00 | 37% 23% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.75–2.86 0.48–3.13 | 2.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 2.00 | 3.95 1.77–6.13 1.21–6.69 | 4.00 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.19 0.78–3.61 0.39–4.00 | 1.00 | 3.03 1.48–4.59 1.05–5.02 | 2.00 | 5.22 2.26–8.19 1.43–9.01 | 3.00 | 28% 17% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+