Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Josh Smith · England
Goals
45%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.152.63safe0.51–2.440.29–2.010.81–4.45safer0.25–2.700.05–2.260.30–4.96actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
58%
13%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.793.688.46safe2.93–6.641.97–5.384.90–12.03safer2.43–7.141.50–5.853.93–12.99actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1710.7723.95safe9.47–16.887.40–14.1516.86–31.03safer8.44–17.916.46–15.0814.90–32.99actual15.007.0022.00
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.677.6816.36safe6.16–11.195.38–9.9911.54–21.18safer5.29–12.064.59–10.789.88–22.84actual12.002.0014.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.713.156.87safe2.13–5.291.74–4.573.87–9.86safer1.59–5.831.25–5.062.85–10.89actual6.001.007.00
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.5310.32safe3.59–8.002.55–6.516.14–14.51safer3.00–8.602.01–7.045.01–15.64actual8.007.0015.00
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction48.0252.74safe41.70–54.3446.43–59.06safer40.11–55.9344.83–60.66actual45.0055.00
Passes
38%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction422457879safe357–487393–522749–1009safer339–505375–539714–1044actual338423761
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction74.6373.63safe70.41–78.8469.12–78.14safer69.11–80.1467.79–79.47
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2011.7423.93safe9.34–15.068.79–14.6818.13–29.74safer8.46–15.947.87–15.6016.33–31.54actual18.0013.0031.00
Offsides
31%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.624.66safe0.83–3.251.45–3.782.28–7.03safer0.49–3.591.12–4.111.61–7.71actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.314.30safe0.94–3.051.19–3.432.12–6.48safer0.67–3.320.90–3.721.56–7.04actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.444.79safe0.94–3.770.88–3.991.82–7.76safer0.55–4.160.45–4.421.00–8.58actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 1.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 0.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.30–4.96 | 1.00 | 45% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.93–6.64 2.43–7.14 | 6.00 | 3.68 1.97–5.38 1.50–5.85 | 2.00 | 8.46 4.90–12.03 3.93–12.99 | 8.00 | 58% 13% 29% |
| Total shots | 13.17 9.47–16.88 8.44–17.91 | 15.00 | 10.77 7.40–14.15 6.46–15.08 | 7.00 | 23.95 16.86–31.03 14.90–32.99 | 22.00 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.67 6.16–11.19 5.29–12.06 | 12.00 | 7.68 5.38–9.99 4.59–10.78 | 2.00 | 16.36 11.54–21.18 9.88–22.84 | 14.00 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.71 2.13–5.29 1.59–5.83 | 6.00 | 3.15 1.74–4.57 1.25–5.06 | 1.00 | 6.87 3.87–9.86 2.85–10.89 | 7.00 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.59–8.00 3.00–8.60 | 8.00 | 4.53 2.55–6.51 2.01–7.04 | 7.00 | 10.32 6.14–14.51 5.01–15.64 | 15.00 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 48.02 41.70–54.34 40.11–55.93 | 45.00 | 52.74 46.43–59.06 44.83–60.66 | 55.00 | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 422 357–487 339–505 | 338 | 457 393–522 375–539 | 423 | 879 749–1009 714–1044 | 761 | 38% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.63 70.41–78.84 69.11–80.14 | — | 73.63 69.12–78.14 67.79–79.47 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 12.20 9.34–15.06 8.46–15.94 | 18.00 | 11.74 8.79–14.68 7.87–15.60 | 13.00 | 23.93 18.13–29.74 16.33–31.54 | 31.00 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.83–3.25 0.49–3.59 | 2.00 | 2.62 1.45–3.78 1.12–4.11 | 0.00 | 4.66 2.28–7.03 1.61–7.71 | 2.00 | 31% 18% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.05 0.67–3.32 | 1.00 | 2.31 1.19–3.43 0.90–3.72 | 2.00 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.56–7.04 | 3.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.94–3.77 0.55–4.16 | 2.00 | 2.44 0.88–3.99 0.45–4.42 | 5.00 | 4.79 1.82–7.76 1.00–8.58 | 7.00 | 39% 19% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.