Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.222.60safe0.41–2.350.36–2.070.78–4.42safer0.16–2.600.14–2.300.30–4.90
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.068.51safe2.59–6.312.32–5.804.90–12.11safer2.10–6.801.85–6.273.95–13.07
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2411.9125.14safe9.31–17.168.34–15.4717.66–32.63safer8.22–18.267.38–16.4315.61–34.68
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.898.2917.18safe5.95–11.835.61–10.9711.56–22.80safer5.12–12.664.87–11.719.99–24.37
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.496.95safe1.58–5.341.83–5.143.41–10.48safer1.03–5.891.34–5.632.38–11.52
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.9810.16safe2.97–7.392.98–6.985.94–14.37safer2.39–7.972.44–7.514.84–15.48
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction53.0147.59safe46.22–59.8040.81–54.38safer44.55–61.4739.14–56.05
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction457413869safe389–524346–479736–1003safer371–542329–497700–1039
Pass accuracy %
50%
44%
homeawayprediction72.8572.26safe68.82–76.8867.94–76.58safer67.53–78.1766.63–77.89
Fouls
27%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7314.4326.15safe8.89–14.5611.48–17.3720.37–31.93safer8.13–15.3210.73–18.1218.86–33.44
Offsides
48%
20%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.251.814.06safe1.09–3.410.71–2.901.81–6.32safer0.79–3.720.43–3.191.22–6.90
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.294.25safe0.91–3.011.16–3.422.07–6.43safer0.65–3.280.87–3.711.52–6.99
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.105.80safe1.26–4.131.55–4.662.80–8.79safer0.87–4.521.12–5.081.99–9.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.14–2.30 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.31 2.10–6.80 | 4.06 2.32–5.80 1.85–6.27 | 8.51 4.90–12.11 3.95–13.07 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.24 9.31–17.16 8.22–18.26 | 11.91 8.34–15.47 7.38–16.43 | 25.14 17.66–32.63 15.61–34.68 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 5.95–11.83 5.12–12.66 | 8.29 5.61–10.97 4.87–11.71 | 17.18 11.56–22.80 9.99–24.37 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.58–5.34 1.03–5.89 | 3.49 1.83–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 6.95 3.41–10.48 2.38–11.52 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.39 2.39–7.97 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.44–7.51 | 10.16 5.94–14.37 4.84–15.48 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 53.01 46.22–59.80 44.55–61.47 | 47.59 40.81–54.38 39.14–56.05 | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 457 389–524 371–542 | 413 346–479 329–497 | 869 736–1003 700–1039 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.85 68.82–76.88 67.53–78.17 | 72.26 67.94–76.58 66.63–77.89 | — | 50% 44% |
| Fouls | 11.73 8.89–14.56 8.13–15.32 | 14.43 11.48–17.37 10.73–18.12 | 26.15 20.37–31.93 18.86–33.44 | 27% 67% |
| Offsides | 2.25 1.09–3.41 0.79–3.72 | 1.81 0.71–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 4.06 1.81–6.32 1.22–6.90 | 48% 20% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.65–3.28 | 2.29 1.16–3.42 0.87–3.71 | 4.25 2.07–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.26–4.13 0.87–4.52 | 3.10 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 5.80 2.80–8.79 1.99–9.60 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.